September 28, 2006

Thailand Coup



On September 19, the Thai army launched a coup d'etat against Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. The controversial Thaksin was out of the country at the time. Not a shot was fired.


Although I had expected something along these lines to take place, I had predicted
things to really get going until later in the Fall. Alas, my timing was
off. Back on May 23, however, I did predict that a time of
greater political upheaval was not far off and that a "wholesale change"
was likely although perhaps not until next year..

Here's what I wrote back in May on this blog and on the mundane-astrology yahoogroups list:

"After stepping down amidst charges of corruption in early April,
Thailand's wealthy Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has returned to
lead his government into the next election, likely to be held later this
year. This has created a predictable amount of dismay amongst opposition
parties and the intelligentsia.

...[There are] first order afflictions with some long term destabilizing
transits such as stationing Uranus squaring natal Mars and transit Rahu
applying to Venus, and you have the recipe for some protracted political
impasse. The upcoming Mars subperiod which starts in November 2006 looks
more conducive to the open conflict required to complete wholesale
change. Mars is very afflicted in the D10 chart representing leaders and
government. Most likely the opposing sides in the dispute will come to
blows in 2007. The most precipitous time appears to be June to September
2007 and will feature major upheavals in society in Thailand that will
remake the fundamental terrain of Thai politics."

I think the Mars subperiod is still implicated in this coup, although I would note that using the Krishnamurti ayanamsha, we can push the start date of the Mars period to early October which is very close indeed to the date of the actual coup. Certainly, we should look forward to great instability in leadership and government for the duration of the Mars subperiod, which ends September 2007. I will therefore stick to the flavour of this earlier prediction and expect we will not see a smooth period leading up to the next elections, due sometime in 2007. Given the political instability, we can look for weakness in the Thai stock market and the currency during this time.

I have included a different chart for Thailand here, the chart for the establishment of the Constitutional Monarchy on June 24, 1932 at 5.20 am Bangkok. Interestingly, this was the result of a palace coup, so there's a nice connection with current events. I am adding this not because I think it is necessarily a better chart than the 1782 chart but because it complements it nicely. Certainly we can see the coup fairly clearly with transits of Pluto to the Dsc, Uranus on the Moon, Saturn conjoining natal 10th lord Jupiter and the nodes squaring the Ascendant. This is a much clearer picture of affliction than the 1782 chart.

The 1932 chart is running Venus-Jupiter dasha, so that Saturn affliction to natal Jupiter representing government and leaders fits well. Even more appropriately, natally Saturn is imbued with more sudden destructive capacity owing to its 8th house placement. It does not take a genius to figure out that when Saturn retrogrades back to Jupiter's natal position at 27 Cancer in 2007, that further troubles will beset the government. This looks like an extended period of weakness and questions about the legitimacy of government from February to July at least. September 2007 will feature more turmoil as Saturn squares 12th house Mars. Although this may feature some violence and loss of life, I am expecting financial losses as well since Mars is 11th lord of gains placed in the 12th house of losses. I will update this forecast as events unfold further.