Gold slips back

As predicted back in May, the late June-July period saw the price of gold rise nicely off its lows of $560. This is partially due to the applying conjunction of Uranus to Jupiter. Now that Uranus is separating from that Jupiter, it's no surprise that gold has fallen back from its interim highs of $650 back to $620. I expect more weakness in the next week but watch from some signficant gains as we head into September (see chart above).

It's unlikely that these gains will hold, however. Watch for the June lows ($560) to be retested this Fall. The Saturn station near the 7th house cusp seems unlikely to bring the bulls back. I would not be surprised to see gold fall back to $500. But come December, the uptrend will resume and continue more strongly into 2007. As before, I am sticking to my forecast that gold will surpass its previous highs ($725) in early 2007.

Israel attacks Lebanon and Gaza

Things aren't looking too good in the Near East these days. Israel (May 15, 1948 00.00) is running Moon-Mercury (or Moon-Ketu if using the Krishnamurti ayanamsha) and Moon is closely conjoined by transit Saturn although it is now separating. Unfortunately, it is moving towards Pluto and the 7th cusp. Uranus falls under the exact trinal aspect of natal Ketu so that is another foundational source of this current phase of violence.

Of more immediate concern is the proximity of transit Mars to natal Mars at 5 Leo. One should expect this high level of violence to continue or even briefly worsen until this conjunction comes exact around the July 20. After that, things will probably de-escalate, at least temporarily. Some sort of ceasefire may occur on the 22nd.

Longer term, the Ketu antardasha doesn't bode well for leaders and governments because it is placed in the 10th house and is squared by Saturn and Pluto. Olmert's adminstration may not last the year. Ketu is further associated with violence since Mars is placed in the nakshatra ruled by Ketu and is placed in the 8th house of sudden actions. Ketu subperiod will last until February 2007. All told, this current crisis gives strong support to the Krishnamurti ayanamsha for this chart. Mercury is nowhere near as afflicted.

Bush's summer of discontent

So the summer of George Bush's discontent is finally upon us. Many astrologers (myself included) have long pointed to this June-July 2006 time as especially difficult for Bush and the US. As transit Mars and Saturn conjoin on the degree of George Bush's natal ascendant on June 17, the astrologer is once again in a position to see the future unfold ahead of time.

Regardless of other chart factors, the Mars Saturn conjunction seems to be a focal point of energy -- whether for action or reaction. Given the natural and temporal maleficence of the these planets, it is hard to imagine how anything favourable can come of this configuration. Indeed the other factors do suggest a time of serious hardship.

Bush is running Mercury-Mercury dasha, so the planet Mercury, ruler of 3rd and 12th houses natally, should be a focus of our attention. In fact, the timing of the major events in this time window probably will have more to do with contacts to Mercury than with the ascendant. Transit Saturn doesn't conjoin natal Mercury until July 4. At that time, Mars will still be debilitated in Cancer and will be in close aspect with natal Ketu. Also, the time when Mercury comes back over the Saturn will coincide with an exact Mars semisextile to Saturn on July 17.

Add to that Rahu's aspect to natal Saturn in the next month or two, and you have the recipe for an extremely difficult time. Saturn's affliction may bring destabilization and erosion of institutions and ruling structures through scandal and embarrassment.

Since Mercury is the ruler of all three dasha levels, it would be well to pay attention to Mercury's transit motion as well. Transit Mercury conjoins Saturn June 24, suggesting that is a likely time of communication problems (3rd house) especially involving foreign affairs (12th house). The double presence of Mars and Saturn points to a suddenness of events with a violent component. But afflictions to Mercury may not necessarily imply problems with Mercury's portfolio since Mercury is placed in the first house. This suggests a more general manifestation is possible, although it may have a Mercurial flavour.

Al Gore in 2008

A few weeks ago, I took a look at Hillary Clinton's chart and thought it strongly favoured her chances in the presidental election of 2008. At that time, I hadn't looked at any other contenders (no excuses other than laziness) and so I left the prediction conditional upon new birth time information for Hillary (there are at least two very different times floating around for her), and the announcement of any Republican contenders.

Al Gore has been getting a lot of good press lately with the release of his movie on global warming, An Inconvenient Truth. At present, Gore is considered a long shot for the Democratic nomination, with a futures trading website putting him at about 12% likely to win compared with 48% for Hillary. After looking at Gore's chart, I think it's time for me to change horses, as it were. Or at least, plunk down some cash on Gore's chances, especially with the odds as good as they are right now.

His chart is very strong indeed and given the accuracy of his birth time, I would favour Gore to win the nomination and the presidency in 2008. Here's what he's got.

He'll be running Rahu-Moon dasha at the time of the election. Rahu is very well situation exactly conjunct the equal 10th house cusp showing power and status. He's been in Rahu dasha since 1992 when he was VP so this is in keeping with previous trends. Moon subperiod is extremely favourable since it rules the first house and is conjunct Jupiter in the 6th house of competitions. What's also interesting is that he won the VP with Clinton in 1992 while he was in Moon supberiod. Clearly, the Moon is very powerful for Gore. Another point of strength is that Moon is found in the D10 10th house. The 10th divisional chart represents matters of status and career.

The progressions are no less powerful. At the time of the election, P2 part of fortune is conjunct P2 Uranus and exactly opposite P2 Jupiter. Talk about favourable! In November 2008, P3 Jupiter and P3 Neptune will be only 6 months before their stations. In fact, both planets will be making declination stations at the time of the inauguration in January 2009. The P4 picture is even more favourable as there is a very rare 6 planet configuration involving Jupiter, Saturn, Rahu/Ketu, Uranus, Venus, and Sun all around 25 degrees of their respective signs.

Gore's 2008 solar return is also very promising since his 11th house Venus is picked up by the SR angles, and his SR Moon is bang on his natal descendant. A pretty happy combination.

So at this point, I am making a case for Gore to win it all. Between Hillary and Gore's chart, Gore's looks better to me -- although it helps there is no uncertainty about his time. When I have more time, I will take a look at the possible Republicans, including McCain and Jeb Bush. Although it seems politically awkward, I wonder if the strength I am seeing in Gore and Hillary's chart might be manifested in a joint ticket. Seems far-fetched, and yet both seem to gain substantially around the time of the election. I don't think Hillary would be happy to have her high hopes dashed by her husband's former #2 and accept the consolation prize of VP. Stranger things have happened. Let's see how it all will unfold.

Putting it monetary terms, if I had a hypothetical $10 to wager on the futures site, on the basis of my analysis so far, I would be putting $7 on Gore (with the long odds) and keep $3 for Clinton just in case. It will be interesting to see the changing perceptions of their respective chances on the intrade.com site. I wonder how long Gore will be seen as a long shot.

Gold's May plunge: is the bull run over?

The price of gold has dropped about $80 or 12% in the past two weeks from its peak of $720 on May 12. It now hovers in the $645 range. What happened?

Although I was anticipating some volatility once transit Uranus separated from Jupiter in the gold futures chart (Dec 31 1974 10.00 am NYC), I was caught a little off guard by the severity of the decline. Here are some of the key factors involved in the recent short term price fluctuations.

1. Transit Uranus conjoined natal Jupiter on April 27. The time leading up to this conjunction corresponded with the sharpest gains in the gold price. I should note also that this chart is running a Venus-Jupiter dasha period, and therefore influences on Jupiter will tend to influence the short term outcomes disproportionately to other planets. Dasha lord Venus operates as longer term background influence.

2. Transit Jupiter in retrograde motion exactly trined natal Jupiter on May 6. This was another benefic influence on the price, and combined with the Uranus and Venus transits to Jupiter in April, created a wholly positive price environment for gold. Normally, I wouldn't pay too much attention to the Jupiter to Jupiter transits, but because it is the antardasha lord, we should recognize that Jupiter will exert a lot of influence here.

3. Transit Uranus is applying to a square to natal Mars throughout May and into June. The negative impact of this difficult energy began to be felt as soon as Uranus separated from Jupiter. Uranus' next stop was therefore the square with malefic Mars. This is not a good influence and is likely the a chief source of the negative sentiment in the gold market at present, at least from a purely transit perspective. Mars-Uranus in hard aspect will create volatile, unexpected, and unpleasant situations which in the context of commodity prices will likely push gold down. The image of a "train wreck" comes to mind.

Where will the market go from here? This is a difficult question given the strong and unpredictable Uranus influence in the next few months, along with some potentially negative Saturn influences in July and August. Here's my best guess at this point:

4. Prices are likely to remain weak at least until Uranus stations on June 19. I would not be surprised to see prices fall further, although I am not at all sure. Once Uranus reverse direction away from the Mars square and heads back towards Jupiter, we will probably see more price support. This bullish period will correspond to growing tension with Iran, since the Iran horoscope is heavily afflicted at this time. Investors looking for a short-term exit point may find this window to their liking.

5. The best time for price increase will be late June and the first part of July as Jupiter will station and go forward on July 6 (Happy Birthday, George). This corresponds to a fairly close sextile to natal Sun. I think we will see a significant price rise, perhaps 10-20% off the lows. (see chart above)

6. The effect of Saturn's transit to the natal Moon will not be favourable. Expect at least some decline at the end of July.

7. Much of the expected price rise associated with retrograde transit Uranus applying to natal Jupiter and transit Jupiter applying to natal Jupiter will be offset by transit Saturn's aspect to the ascendant during the late summer. Although the exact ascendant of this chart remains in doubt, Saturn's influence will be felt in August and September. That said, a price increase is still possible although it will not be comparable to what we saw in March and April. This will be a seesaw battle between the bulls and bears. The Saturn station in early December will occur in close aspect to the ascendant and will likely mark another significant decline in prices around that time.

8 The next major trend upward will take place in January 2007. Again, I can see this linked to critical geopolitical and military concerns. This can be seen through transit Uranus now direct applying to natal Jupiter while Rahu (north node) applies to Jupiter. This should have an explosive effect on prices that will likely last until at least April 2007. As I see it now, this is where the medium term gold price top occurs.

9. Since the Jupiter subperiod ends in June 2007 and is followed by Saturn, I can't see the bullish price trend lasting beyond that date.

Thailand's PM Thaksin returns

After stepping down amidst charges of corruption in early April, Thailand's wealthy Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has returned to lead his government into the next election, likely to be held later this year. Read about it here. This has created a predictable amount of dismay amongst opposition parties and the intelligentsia.


All of this is in advance of the massive celebrations planned for June 9th, to honour His Majesty King Bhumipol's 60th year on the throne. The astrology strongly points to major incidents of civil unrest around this time. Thailand's chart is still running Jupiter- Moon dasha. The Moon therefore becomes the key planet for assessing the trend of events. Transit Saturn is still very close to the natal Moon -- just a degree or two past -- and now here comes Mars into Cancer in a few days. Having two malefics ganging up on the Moon and antardasha lord will not create peace and harmony in the Kingdom. Mars comes to the degree of the Moon just a day or two after the celebrations, while Sun will fall under the aspect of natal Ketu. This suggests a time when leaders come under stress. I am expecting the unrest to take the form of demonstrations which will include some violence.

Combine those first order afflictions with some long term destabilizing transits such as stationing Uranus squaring natal Mars and transit Rahu applying to Venus, and you have the recipe for some protracted political impasse. The upcoming Mars subperiod which stars in November 2006 looks more conducive to the open conflict required to complete wholesale change. Mars is very afflicted in the D10 chart representing leaders and government. Most likely the opposing sides in the dispute will come to blows in 2007. The most precipitous time appears to be June to September 2007 and will feature major upheavals in society in Thailand that will remake the fundamental terrain of Thai politics.

Canadian Liberal leadership: Ignatieff

The Canadian Liberal party will choose its next leader December 2 2006. At present, there are 11 declared candidates. I had originally believed that former New Brunswick premier Frank McKenna was likely to win but in the end, he chose not to run. That threw the race wide open.

Among the present field of candidates, I think that Michael Ignatieff has the best chance of winning. Born May 12 1947 (again, no time available so this will necessarily be a work of approximation), Ignatieff has spent most of the past 30 years living outside Canada pursuing an academic career, first in the UK and more recently in the US. His secondary progressed chart contains two very positive aspects: a Sun Jupiter trine and a Venus-Chiron trine. (see above)

His heliocentric tertiary progressed chart also has p3 Venus trine a p3 Jupiter/Earth conjuction.

Transits at the time of the convention may also be helpful as Sun, Venus, Jupiter and Mars will all be in sidereal Scorpio which is in the 11th house from his Capricorn Moon. The 11th house represents gains.

One possible wild card is Gerard Kennedy who is seen by many observers as an attractive candidate. However, since his birth date is unknown at this time, I cannot handicap his chances of winning. Given the strength of Ignatieff's horoscope however, I think he is still most likely to carry the day.