Astrology is an inexact science at the best of times, and "science" here is only understood in the widest possible sense of the word. Making predictions is a necessary risk the brave astrologer has to make, even if it means being wrong a good part of the time. Like other sciences of human behaviour (economics comes to mind), no matter how chequered one's track record, one is compelled to make assessments using whatever data is at hand.
So imagine my surprise yesterday when leading Liberal party hopeful Frank McKenna announced that he would not seek the leadership. Didn't he realize I had just made a prediction that had him leading the Liberals to victory in the Fall? Alas, I was getting ahead of myself and trying to connect the sparsely distributed dots with very long lines. This is part of of the problem with doing astrology without birth times. One has to make longer leaps and assume a more probabilistic stance in the hope of infering outcomes from limited data points.
What I saw in McKenna's horoscope was a significant favourable development in summer with another layer of benefit or advancement in the Fall. Nothing more specific than that. Without the birth time, one can't see houses or angularity -- two very important factors in a horoscope that give direct the astrologer towards the likely areas of life that the planet's energies are being directed. Given that he was the de facto front runner in the race, I naturally assumed that these positive configurations in his chart would likely push him into the top Liberal job. He had the best horoscope of the three or four likely suspects I looked at. Now that he's announced he won't run, my prediction has to be revised. I still believe McKenna will follow that upward path, only the job and status he will gain will apparently not be the Liberal leadership. 2006 should be a very good year for him with a strong career advance.
This change in trajectory only slightly weakens my case for a Conservative defeat in the Fall, which I would place at a 60% likelihood. Certainly, the likely swearing-in horoscope for Harper (and we'll wait for it to actually happen to get the exact time) indicates a turbulent first year. I think there is good reason to think his government won't survive to Christmas, although I have to allow for the possibility that it may merely suffer due to internal problems (eg. more ethics scandals) and external crises (terror attack, flu outbreak, etc) that affect the country as a whole. Besides being an indicator for the government, the swearing-in chart acts as a proxy for the country as a whole. Should there be some major global event that has a shocking or disruptive effect on Canada, then that would also fulfill the promise of this chart. And if a major negative event would transpire, then it is possible that the Harper government would survive. Let's call that Option 2 and give it a 30% probability for now. Certainly, one of those two scenarios is extremely likely (=90%) in my view.
January 31, 2006
January 29, 2006
Stocks rebound
After falling almost 4% the week before last, stocks staged a comeback and recouped their losses last week. From my perspective, this wasn't entirely expected, although Mercury has yet to move deeply into the 8th house. It's possible that the drop Jan 16-20 will be the extent of the decline as predicted by Crawford but I think there will be volatility in the week upcoming. Look for some downward pressure on prices as Mercury moves past 25 Capricorn.
As is usually the case, assessing contradictory planetary forces is never a straightforward thing. So while Venus stations on natal Ketu and Mercury and sun move into the troublesome 8th house, benefic Jupiter is approaching a trine to the ascendant at 25 Gemini as it moves towards a retrograde station on March 3. The strength of this slower moving aspect will certainly overpower other short term stressful influences so February may see a general uptrend.
Of course, the deeper metatheoretical question is: does this NYSE composite chart even work? The price movements in the next month or two should tell the tale.
As is usually the case, assessing contradictory planetary forces is never a straightforward thing. So while Venus stations on natal Ketu and Mercury and sun move into the troublesome 8th house, benefic Jupiter is approaching a trine to the ascendant at 25 Gemini as it moves towards a retrograde station on March 3. The strength of this slower moving aspect will certainly overpower other short term stressful influences so February may see a general uptrend.
Of course, the deeper metatheoretical question is: does this NYSE composite chart even work? The price movements in the next month or two should tell the tale.
Harper's bad stars
Word is out that new Conservative PM Stephen Harper will be sworn in February 6 in Ottawa. Looking at the likely chart that will result, I have a feeling no astrologer was consulted in choosing that date. Typically, the swearing in occurs around 10.30 am although the time is not associated with any formal traditions that I know of.
The chart has sidereal Aries rising with Sun in exact conjunction with Neptune in the 10th house and Mercury closely squared by Mars. The Sun Neptne conjunction occuring in the 10th house of leadership points to either a scandal or possible illness involving the PM. The Mercury square by Mars shows conflict and rancour and again confirms the theme of health since Mercury rules the 6th house of Virgo. A couple of saving graces might be the near stationary Venus in the 9th and Jupiter in the 7th aspecing the ascendant. Both of those benefic placements perhaps speak to improved foreign relations abroad, including most obviously the USA. George Bush will take any new friends he can find.
What is significant here is that the key transits echo the time frames I have already noted for probable troubles in the incoming Harper government. Saturn will oppose the Sun-Neptune conjunction in August and may reveal a scandal. Then in November, Saturn will come to station near an exact square (casting its most malefic 10th house aspect) to Mars, the chart ruler. Around the same time, transit Ketu was also be aspecting this Mars. This is the most likely time for the defeat of the government in the House of Commons and the forcing of yet another election in the Fall.
Of course, it is still possible that the government wouldn't fall at this time and would only represent extreme stress. Nonetheless given the fact that this is an unstable minority government and the ferocity of these transits, I believe an election in which the Conservative's lose is the more likely outcome. At this point, this chart strongly points to a return to power for the Liberals before the end of 2006. I'll wait until the 6th and see for the exact time of the oath-taking in order to fine tune this chart and double check other calculations.
www.modernvedicastrology.com
The chart has sidereal Aries rising with Sun in exact conjunction with Neptune in the 10th house and Mercury closely squared by Mars. The Sun Neptne conjunction occuring in the 10th house of leadership points to either a scandal or possible illness involving the PM. The Mercury square by Mars shows conflict and rancour and again confirms the theme of health since Mercury rules the 6th house of Virgo. A couple of saving graces might be the near stationary Venus in the 9th and Jupiter in the 7th aspecing the ascendant. Both of those benefic placements perhaps speak to improved foreign relations abroad, including most obviously the USA. George Bush will take any new friends he can find.
What is significant here is that the key transits echo the time frames I have already noted for probable troubles in the incoming Harper government. Saturn will oppose the Sun-Neptune conjunction in August and may reveal a scandal. Then in November, Saturn will come to station near an exact square (casting its most malefic 10th house aspect) to Mars, the chart ruler. Around the same time, transit Ketu was also be aspecting this Mars. This is the most likely time for the defeat of the government in the House of Commons and the forcing of yet another election in the Fall.
Of course, it is still possible that the government wouldn't fall at this time and would only represent extreme stress. Nonetheless given the fact that this is an unstable minority government and the ferocity of these transits, I believe an election in which the Conservative's lose is the more likely outcome. At this point, this chart strongly points to a return to power for the Liberals before the end of 2006. I'll wait until the 6th and see for the exact time of the oath-taking in order to fine tune this chart and double check other calculations.
www.modernvedicastrology.com
January 27, 2006
Canadian Liberal leadership race
I've looked at a few birthdates of the leading suitors for the Liberal crown. Frank McKenna (Jan 19 1948, Sussex, NB) appears to have the strongest chart. Also in the running are Brian Tobin (Oct 21 1954, Stephenville, NF) and Michael Ignatieff (May 12 1947, Toronto, ON).
Although we don't know any times for these would be candidates, I like to use progressed stations, following in the Houck tradition of political astrology. McKenna is the only one of the three with a progressed station this summer, at the likely time of the leadership convention. His tertiary progressed Uranus stations in June. What's more, it stations within one degree of trining natal Venus -- a very favourable aspect.
Normally, I like to see a station correspond with the actual date of the election rather than the convetion. When the station falls near the convention, it means that the person wins the nomination, but runs out of steam by election time and loses.
This is exactly what happened to Kerry and Edwards. Both had progressed stations early on in the campaign when their stars were rising. But there wasn't anything happening in their charts come the Fall. Alas, too few astrologers bother to check this very basic sort of configuration.
So what's McKenna running on come Fall 2006 when the next election is likely? No stations, unfortunately for him, but I am encouraged by the near simultaneous ingress of tertiary progressed Sun and Jupiter into their respective sidereal signs (use Lahiri/Krishnamurti here). This is another Houck technique that I have found works well. It may not quite have the same power as a direct station involved in a good aspect, but it is noteworthy. Since McKenna is having two progressed ingresses simulaneously, this effectively counts as a station and then some.
This analysis is subject to change as more information comes available, but right now, I would bet on McKenna's chances to win the Liberal party leadership in summer, and then go on to win the next election in October or November 2006.
I will know more about the election timing once Harper is sworn in, since that chart usually contains some useful information.
www.modernvedicastrology.com
Although we don't know any times for these would be candidates, I like to use progressed stations, following in the Houck tradition of political astrology. McKenna is the only one of the three with a progressed station this summer, at the likely time of the leadership convention. His tertiary progressed Uranus stations in June. What's more, it stations within one degree of trining natal Venus -- a very favourable aspect.
Normally, I like to see a station correspond with the actual date of the election rather than the convetion. When the station falls near the convention, it means that the person wins the nomination, but runs out of steam by election time and loses.
This is exactly what happened to Kerry and Edwards. Both had progressed stations early on in the campaign when their stars were rising. But there wasn't anything happening in their charts come the Fall. Alas, too few astrologers bother to check this very basic sort of configuration.
So what's McKenna running on come Fall 2006 when the next election is likely? No stations, unfortunately for him, but I am encouraged by the near simultaneous ingress of tertiary progressed Sun and Jupiter into their respective sidereal signs (use Lahiri/Krishnamurti here). This is another Houck technique that I have found works well. It may not quite have the same power as a direct station involved in a good aspect, but it is noteworthy. Since McKenna is having two progressed ingresses simulaneously, this effectively counts as a station and then some.
This analysis is subject to change as more information comes available, but right now, I would bet on McKenna's chances to win the Liberal party leadership in summer, and then go on to win the next election in October or November 2006.
I will know more about the election timing once Harper is sworn in, since that chart usually contains some useful information.
www.modernvedicastrology.com
January 25, 2006
Conservatives win Canadian election
Good to see "the universe unfolding as it should", even if it means the Conservatives now get to discover the secret doors and false bookcases in the East Block on Parliament Hill. And to think we did it without the aid of some fancy pants Diebold machines and the like. Just a short little pencil, a piece of paper, and a cardboard ballot box worth about 2 dollars. That's the foundation of Canadian democracy. (I hear music playing now against a backdrop of mounties on parade)
I predicted a Conservative win at the outset of this election back in late November when they were down 5 -10 points in the polls. [sound of me patting myself on the back] I think a key factor in seeing that a change in the ruling party was coming was the conjunction of tr Uranus to Jupiter/Sun trine in the natal chart of Canada. In my research, Uranus aspects are frequently implicated in changes in government. Other charts such as the Liberal govt oath chart also showed some major afflictions now.
Looking ahead, this Uranus transit is not yet done with Canada. Uranus will move forward and then station and then return again to the proximity of the Jupiter/Sun aspect in the natal chart in the Fall. Although I have not yet done a lot of work on this, it seems likely that another election will occur at that time, in October or November. And it therefore also seems likely that the Conservatives will lose. But that is a preliminary judgement right now.
Since MP Paul Martin has now resigned as Liberal leader, I will reaffirm or amend this prediction as the data from the new leader comes available in the summer (without a birth time in all likelihood) and I analyse the chart of the swearing in of the new Conservative government, which will likely occur in a couple of weeks.
www.modernvedicastrology.com
January 20, 2006
January Stock Market decline
I see the Dow is off over 100 points today. Checking the NYSE composite chart (May 6 1982 10.00 am NYC), it's clear that Venus approaching natal Ketu may be part of the downward slide. Mercury just entered Capricorn -- the 8th house -- in this Gemini rising chart so that is another negative factor.
Noted financial astrologer Arch Crawford has predicted a significant decline on Wall St for the end of January. Looks as though he will be right on the money once again.
Expect to see more declines as Mercury moves deeper in sidereal Capricorn close to Neptune while Venus stations exactly conjunct natal Ketu. Shouldn't be anything too huge but a 5% correction is entirely within range. The developments in Iran will probably not help matters. Stocks may recover by the second week of February.
Noted financial astrologer Arch Crawford has predicted a significant decline on Wall St for the end of January. Looks as though he will be right on the money once again.
Expect to see more declines as Mercury moves deeper in sidereal Capricorn close to Neptune while Venus stations exactly conjunct natal Ketu. Shouldn't be anything too huge but a 5% correction is entirely within range. The developments in Iran will probably not help matters. Stocks may recover by the second week of February.
January 16, 2006
Iran
There is increased talk about Iran in the news these days. Fears about its nuclear energy program have prompted a growing number of western countries to confront the Islamic republic.
I think there will be some significant developments in the next two or three weeks. The Iran chart ( Feb 11 1979 2.00 pm) is afflicted, especially if one looks at the lunar return chart upcoming. Since Mars is brought to the angles, it is quite likely that some kind of violence is in the cards. There have been discussion of the likelihood of a pre-emptive attack by the US on nuclear installations there. This is quite possible although I cannot put a probability figure on it right now.
I think there will be some major development on the political and diplomatic fronts first however, especially around Jan 26-29. The 9th house is clearly highlighted in the chart pointing to overseas difficulties.
www.modernvedicastrology.com
I think there will be some significant developments in the next two or three weeks. The Iran chart ( Feb 11 1979 2.00 pm) is afflicted, especially if one looks at the lunar return chart upcoming. Since Mars is brought to the angles, it is quite likely that some kind of violence is in the cards. There have been discussion of the likelihood of a pre-emptive attack by the US on nuclear installations there. This is quite possible although I cannot put a probability figure on it right now.
I think there will be some major development on the political and diplomatic fronts first however, especially around Jan 26-29. The 9th house is clearly highlighted in the chart pointing to overseas difficulties.
www.modernvedicastrology.com
January 13, 2006
Death throes of the Martin Liberals
It's almost unfathomable how the once-mighty Liberals have fallen so far so fast. They have the most experience, the best PR talent, and most of the money, but its gaffe after gaffe. Must be some serious planetary karma that is throwing a wrench into their plans. Could an astrologer have helped Martin save his government? Doubt it, since the planet of change, Uranus, is conjoining Jupiter which represents the sitting government in the Canada horoscope while aspecting the Sun, the natural significator for leadership.
With only ten days to go before the election, the only question now is will the Conservatives have enough strength to get a majority in Parliament which requires 155 out of a total of 308 seats. The latest poll projection has them winning 152 seats. With a majority, they can implement all of their platform with relatively little horse-trading. If they get less than 155 seats, then they have to enter into negotiations with other parties to assure passage of any bills.
At the outset, I predicted a Conservative win but assumed it would be a minority because a majority simply seemed impossible. Now it seems that is it not only possible but likely. It would almost require a political miracle to prevent it. And now I wonder: what is the difference in astrological signature between a majority and minority government?
With only ten days to go before the election, the only question now is will the Conservatives have enough strength to get a majority in Parliament which requires 155 out of a total of 308 seats. The latest poll projection has them winning 152 seats. With a majority, they can implement all of their platform with relatively little horse-trading. If they get less than 155 seats, then they have to enter into negotiations with other parties to assure passage of any bills.
At the outset, I predicted a Conservative win but assumed it would be a minority because a majority simply seemed impossible. Now it seems that is it not only possible but likely. It would almost require a political miracle to prevent it. And now I wonder: what is the difference in astrological signature between a majority and minority government?
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