Gold's May plunge: is the bull run over?

The price of gold has dropped about $80 or 12% in the past two weeks from its peak of $720 on May 12. It now hovers in the $645 range. What happened?

Although I was anticipating some volatility once transit Uranus separated from Jupiter in the gold futures chart (Dec 31 1974 10.00 am NYC), I was caught a little off guard by the severity of the decline. Here are some of the key factors involved in the recent short term price fluctuations.

1. Transit Uranus conjoined natal Jupiter on April 27. The time leading up to this conjunction corresponded with the sharpest gains in the gold price. I should note also that this chart is running a Venus-Jupiter dasha period, and therefore influences on Jupiter will tend to influence the short term outcomes disproportionately to other planets. Dasha lord Venus operates as longer term background influence.

2. Transit Jupiter in retrograde motion exactly trined natal Jupiter on May 6. This was another benefic influence on the price, and combined with the Uranus and Venus transits to Jupiter in April, created a wholly positive price environment for gold. Normally, I wouldn't pay too much attention to the Jupiter to Jupiter transits, but because it is the antardasha lord, we should recognize that Jupiter will exert a lot of influence here.

3. Transit Uranus is applying to a square to natal Mars throughout May and into June. The negative impact of this difficult energy began to be felt as soon as Uranus separated from Jupiter. Uranus' next stop was therefore the square with malefic Mars. This is not a good influence and is likely the a chief source of the negative sentiment in the gold market at present, at least from a purely transit perspective. Mars-Uranus in hard aspect will create volatile, unexpected, and unpleasant situations which in the context of commodity prices will likely push gold down. The image of a "train wreck" comes to mind.

Where will the market go from here? This is a difficult question given the strong and unpredictable Uranus influence in the next few months, along with some potentially negative Saturn influences in July and August. Here's my best guess at this point:

4. Prices are likely to remain weak at least until Uranus stations on June 19. I would not be surprised to see prices fall further, although I am not at all sure. Once Uranus reverse direction away from the Mars square and heads back towards Jupiter, we will probably see more price support. This bullish period will correspond to growing tension with Iran, since the Iran horoscope is heavily afflicted at this time. Investors looking for a short-term exit point may find this window to their liking.

5. The best time for price increase will be late June and the first part of July as Jupiter will station and go forward on July 6 (Happy Birthday, George). This corresponds to a fairly close sextile to natal Sun. I think we will see a significant price rise, perhaps 10-20% off the lows. (see chart above)

6. The effect of Saturn's transit to the natal Moon will not be favourable. Expect at least some decline at the end of July.

7. Much of the expected price rise associated with retrograde transit Uranus applying to natal Jupiter and transit Jupiter applying to natal Jupiter will be offset by transit Saturn's aspect to the ascendant during the late summer. Although the exact ascendant of this chart remains in doubt, Saturn's influence will be felt in August and September. That said, a price increase is still possible although it will not be comparable to what we saw in March and April. This will be a seesaw battle between the bulls and bears. The Saturn station in early December will occur in close aspect to the ascendant and will likely mark another significant decline in prices around that time.

8 The next major trend upward will take place in January 2007. Again, I can see this linked to critical geopolitical and military concerns. This can be seen through transit Uranus now direct applying to natal Jupiter while Rahu (north node) applies to Jupiter. This should have an explosive effect on prices that will likely last until at least April 2007. As I see it now, this is where the medium term gold price top occurs.

9. Since the Jupiter subperiod ends in June 2007 and is followed by Saturn, I can't see the bullish price trend lasting beyond that date.

Thailand's PM Thaksin returns

After stepping down amidst charges of corruption in early April, Thailand's wealthy Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has returned to lead his government into the next election, likely to be held later this year. Read about it here. This has created a predictable amount of dismay amongst opposition parties and the intelligentsia.


All of this is in advance of the massive celebrations planned for June 9th, to honour His Majesty King Bhumipol's 60th year on the throne. The astrology strongly points to major incidents of civil unrest around this time. Thailand's chart is still running Jupiter- Moon dasha. The Moon therefore becomes the key planet for assessing the trend of events. Transit Saturn is still very close to the natal Moon -- just a degree or two past -- and now here comes Mars into Cancer in a few days. Having two malefics ganging up on the Moon and antardasha lord will not create peace and harmony in the Kingdom. Mars comes to the degree of the Moon just a day or two after the celebrations, while Sun will fall under the aspect of natal Ketu. This suggests a time when leaders come under stress. I am expecting the unrest to take the form of demonstrations which will include some violence.

Combine those first order afflictions with some long term destabilizing transits such as stationing Uranus squaring natal Mars and transit Rahu applying to Venus, and you have the recipe for some protracted political impasse. The upcoming Mars subperiod which stars in November 2006 looks more conducive to the open conflict required to complete wholesale change. Mars is very afflicted in the D10 chart representing leaders and government. Most likely the opposing sides in the dispute will come to blows in 2007. The most precipitous time appears to be June to September 2007 and will feature major upheavals in society in Thailand that will remake the fundamental terrain of Thai politics.

Canadian Liberal leadership: Ignatieff

The Canadian Liberal party will choose its next leader December 2 2006. At present, there are 11 declared candidates. I had originally believed that former New Brunswick premier Frank McKenna was likely to win but in the end, he chose not to run. That threw the race wide open.

Among the present field of candidates, I think that Michael Ignatieff has the best chance of winning. Born May 12 1947 (again, no time available so this will necessarily be a work of approximation), Ignatieff has spent most of the past 30 years living outside Canada pursuing an academic career, first in the UK and more recently in the US. His secondary progressed chart contains two very positive aspects: a Sun Jupiter trine and a Venus-Chiron trine. (see above)

His heliocentric tertiary progressed chart also has p3 Venus trine a p3 Jupiter/Earth conjuction.

Transits at the time of the convention may also be helpful as Sun, Venus, Jupiter and Mars will all be in sidereal Scorpio which is in the 11th house from his Capricorn Moon. The 11th house represents gains.

One possible wild card is Gerard Kennedy who is seen by many observers as an attractive candidate. However, since his birth date is unknown at this time, I cannot handicap his chances of winning. Given the strength of Ignatieff's horoscope however, I think he is still most likely to carry the day.