The VP Debate

With the much-anticipated Vice-Presidential debate between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin tomorrow, here are a few thoughts on the probable outcome as it relates to the general trend in the campaign. As predicted in mid-September, the Obama campaign has pulled into the lead and is now ahead of McCain by an average 5-6 points in recent polls. This trend is likely to continue as the Obama campaign chart is very strong in the coming days while the McCain campaign chart is troubled.

With Moon and Venus transiting the 7th house of the Obama campaign chart today (Oct 1), we can see that his campaign is riding high. A new poll was released today that put him ahead by 9 points, the most in the campaign thus far. His vote tonight in the Senate on the bailout bill will also improve his profile and popularity. The difficulty in the McCain campaign chart is that transiting Mercury is exactly aspected by malefic natal Saturn, so he is likely to look weak and out of favour in the next couple of days. While Mercury is usually a fast moving planet, it is retrograde now and moving quite slowly. This extends the negative influence on McCain.

The debate tomorrow doesn't look like a game changer for either campaign. It is very unlikely to help McCain much since Mercury will still be afflicted by Saturn, especially since transiting Mars conjoins the natal IC. With Venus transiting the 4th house cusp Thursday and Friday, it's possible that McCain may get a small bounce but it will not be significant. Another possible interpretation may simply be the feminine influence (Venus in Libra) that Palin will exert on the campaign at this time. At the time of the debate, the Moon will be in a difficult square aspect to the Sun-Mars-Saturn conjunction in her chart, so this will certainly be a high stress moment for her. It also suggests that things may not go as well as she would have liked. By contrast, the Moon will conjoin Biden's natal Mercury and come under the helpful aspect of his natal Jupiter at the time of the debate. This may suggest that Biden is relieved and happy with his performance. At the same time, transiting Venus is close to his natal Mars which is often a problem and transiting Mars opposes his natal Moon over the next few days which is rarely a good thing. There may be some negative post-debate fallout with Biden that could cause some short lived problems for the Obama campaign.

The next significant time to watch out for is October 9-10, when transiting Mars opposes the natal Sun in the McCain campaign chart while transiting Sun comes under the influence of the natal Saturn. This looks like a major setback for the McCain-Palin ticket and will likely increase Obama's lead.

After that, however, Obama still stumble from Oct 13-16. With the involvement of Mars, Sun and Mercury with malefic points in the horoscope, there will likely be some element of conflict with the event. Fortunately for Obama, he will likely be enjoying a lead of more than 5 points at that time, so it's more likely he will be able to withstand this problem and go on to win. The problem will occur right around the time of the last debate on Oct 15 so it may be doubly embarrassing for him if it becomes the focus in the debate. Alternatively, it may simply be a poor debate performance.

This promises to be an interesting finish to the campaign.