The Sarah Palin Factor

We now have a fairly reliable birth time for Sarah Palin -- 4.40 pm. This birth time comes from someone who claims to have seen her birth certificate although it has yet to be confirmed. For the moment, let's go with it. With a timed chart, we can look for additional clues about the outcome of the upcoming election on November 4th. It's a very impressive chart. Cancer rising with first lord Moon closely conjunct benefic Mercury in the 7th house, widely conjunct the Sun. This is a well disposed 7th house indicating she is charming and relates well to other people. Well, no surprise there. And the close aspect of the Sun to the ascendant makes her confident and outgoing. Since it is in a close degree conjunction to Mars and Saturn in the early degrees of Aquarius, this really amps up her assertiveness, initiative and ability to get things done. Jupiter is strong in its own sign of Pisces in the 9th house and aspects the ascendant. Her strong religious faith may partially come from this placement as Jupiter in the 9th inclines a person to follow traditional or conservative spiritual paths. Since Jupiter's aspect is so close to the ascendant, the good fortune of the 9th house is transferred to her whole person.

Perhaps more important is that this chart is running the Jupiter-Venus dasha, which will be in effect until late November. The Jupiter dasha began in 1998 and will run until 2014. As we've seen, Jupiter is very well placed so that is broadly in keeping with her rise in status and power as mayor of Wasilla, then governor of Alaska and now as the VP nominee. As subperiod lord, Venus is very well placed in the 9th house in Pisces, its sign of exaltation and rules the 4th house of happiness and 11th house of gains. This is certainly an excellent combination of planets and generally bodes well for all matters. By itself, however, these planets do not confer victory in the election since they may describe the increase in status that Palin has enjoyed in this race so far. She could still lose the election and look forward to a bright future as a possible presidential candidate in the future. In that sense, the positive karma endowed in the Jupiter-Venus period may only represent her bursting onto the national stage, to say nothing of the collection of action figure dolls.

We also have to look at the situation of the dasha lords in context of the prevailing transits from now until the election. Transiting Jupiter is placed in the 6th house of competition. While this is not a great placement, it may not be that negative either since it may merely reflect the fact that she is engaged in a situation of ongoing conflict. It should also be noted that transiting Jupiter squares its natal position, which is another less than favourable pattern but not a deal breaker. On November 4th, transiting Venus is well placed on the 5th house cusp in late Scorpio and trines the ascendant. There will definitely be some sense of happiness and ease on election day, whatever the result. Transiting Mars squares her Sun on election day, and this suggests an infusion of energy that might be interpreted in various ways. Given Mars' rulership over the 10th house of status, it may be conferring status that goes with an election victory. It may also simply describe the tension and excitement on election day, particularly if the outcome is not known until late.

From that brief analysis, I would say the Palin chart allows for the possibility of a Republican win. However, the absence of any progressed planetary stations in Palin's chart is one important reason why I have nagging doubts that she and McCain can win. While politicians on both winning and losing sides can have supposedly "good" transits at the time of the election, they do not always translate into victory. Very often, the losing candidate's good transits may simply indicate the great public attention they are getting and the culmination of a long, exhausting campaign. Even losing can provide a semblance of relief.

Following the work of astrologer Richard Houck, one of the most important signals of a political win is the presence of a progressed station in a politicians' chart near the time of the election. Just as planetary stations are more powerful indicators of an event for either good or ill, progressed stations are often more emphatic expressions of planetary energy. Mars and Saturn stations are often negative and can indicate losses generally, depending on the larger configuration they are involved in. Mercury, Venus, and Jupiter stations are more commonly associated with successful endeavours, although they, too, can 'go the other way' if they are connected with negative planets and houses.

Of course, the presence or absence of a progressed station is not sufficient to predict the outcome of an election. There may be occasions when no station is necessary for victory, but in my experience these are quite rare. In this case, I note that both Saturn and Uranus are stationing by transit in the month following the election. Because both of these planets are slow moving, their transit stations may have comparable power to the minor progressed station of a fast moving planet that is otherwise not well connected to the rest of the chart. But here again, neither transiting Saturn nor Uranus energize a key point in the natal and relocated Palin charts. This is therefore another potential weakness in her chart that does not seal the deal of the Republican win in November.

As I've said all along, there are some obviously stressful and downright negative characteristics of the Obama chart in November. Like many astrologers, I've wondered aloud if these afflictions might indicate that some harm may come to him, or if he will just lose the election. The chart of the Democratic Party similarly appears to show some kind of conflict or sudden affliction that represents something other than a simple loss at the polls. The Biden chart seems more clearly powerful and positive to me, most obviously because the stationing Saturn-Uranus opposition is so close to his MC-IC.

John McCain's chart has the Saturn-Uranus opposition sitting on his relocated Asc-Dsc for Phoenix. While this may be seen to be roughly equivalent to Biden's situation, I see the involvement with the MC-IC as pertaining more directly to career and status, whereas the ascendant is more about the person himself. McCain also presents an interesting puzzle as far as the progressed stations go. He has a minor progressed Saturn station just a few days after the election. Saturn is often negative, but it's important not to make a snap judgement here. Saturn's progressed station occurs at 28 Aries, in close trine aspect to his natal Venus. Any soft aspect contact with malefics can be an indicator of success. Moreover, McCain's natal Saturn is very strong natally by virtue of it being in its own sign of Aquarius and being in close opposition aspect with Venus. If those were the only influences on McCain's progressed Saturn, then I would think he would win. However, things are murkier because the Saturn is also in a very tight square with minor progressed Mercury. Squares are very rarely good, and Mercury-Saturn squares are almost never indicators of positive events. Also, Saturn is sitting very close to the 8th house cusp of the natal chart. This is an unhelpful influence and reinforces the possibility of obstacles, sudden changes, and disappointments.

Confused yet? So am I! It's a complex picture to be sure, far more than the last presidential election in 2004 or the California election of Schwarzenegger in 2003. I was very confident of both of those successful predictions because the charts seemed unequivocal to me. Here that is not the case. While I still favour the Democrats to win, I'm not at all sure of this prediction. If I was betting, I wouldn't want to put much more than $10 on this outcome.

The other way to look at this election is to get a sense of the prevailing trends. Since the selection of Sarah Palin, the Republicans have gone up in the polls as she has captured much of the media attention once reserved for Barack Obama. McCain is now slightly ahead in the polls, reversing the long-held Obama advantage. I think the pendulum is about to swing back to Obama in the next week. This may probably be helped along by a deteriorating financial situation in the US as I am forecasting stock markets to fall further in the coming weeks. The most difficult time for McCain may be in the last week of September as transiting Saturn conjoins the natal Ketu in his campaign chart. At the same time, transiting Mars will oppose the natal Mercury. I believe that Obama and the Democrats will once again move into the lead in the polls by early October.

But at that point, Obama's campaign will stumble, perhaps fatally, on or around October 15-16 as Mercury stations on the 6th house of the campaign chart at the same time that Mars conjoins the descendant. This is really a very negative pattern that speaks to conflict, misunderstandings, and stress. Since this occurs near the time of the last debate on foreign policy, it may reflect a poor performance by Obama. Since this is the last debate, a bad showing there could be difficult to come back from. Obama will have to be in the lead before this debate in order to have any chance of winning on election day. He is almost certain to lose some popularity as a result of events of Oct. 15th. If he goes on to win, it likely won't be by a wide margin.

The exact Saturn-Uranus opposition on election day promises an election unlike any other. We already know it will be historically significant in some way depending on if Obama or Palin are elected. But I think the extent of the energy and tension of that day will exceed the symbolic nature of the outcome. It promises to be one very wild ride.