Stock markets plunge 9% on failed bailout vote

Markets in New York fell off a cliff today after the House of Representatives unexpectedly rejected the emergency financial bailout bill. The Dow lost a record 777 points or 7% and closed near its worst levels of the day at 10,365. The S&P lost 9% or 106 points and closed at 1107. This decline confirms my prediction from two weeks ago that the 29th would be very negative, although I had thought the drop might be more like 5%. Over the weekend, when it seemed that the bill would pass, I wondered if my original prediction had been mistaken, as I wrote in my weekly forecast. As it turned out, it underestimated the losses. Not surprisingly, oil fell $11 to $95 as investors worry of a global economic slowdown and gold rose over $22 and closed at $910. Today's New Moon in Virgo that featured a beleaguered Mercury may be seen as one important indicator for the decline in stocks.

I think tomorrow's trading will likely be negative but I don't foresee any huge drop like today's. In fact, there may be a stabilizing in the afternoon. I still expect some kind of rally perhaps on Wednesday and Thursday. As in my weekly forecast, Friday is looking quite iffy, perhaps due to some bad economic news in the jobs report.

Next week looks even worse, so we may be preparing for a 1000 point drop in the Dow. Even with a rally later this week that might get the market back to 11,000, I think we'll be under 10,000 with next week's collapse. 9000 is a worse case scenario by October 10th, although that is a very speculative target.

Obama widens lead in polls on economic uncertainty

As predicted here last week, Obama has regained a significant lead in recent days as fears grow over the US economy. While Obama was tied with McCain in Intrade.com a week ago, Obama now leads by 10 points. Obama is now also leading in Virginia for the first time in some polls and has shown gains in other battleground states such as Colorado.

I expect Obama's strength in the campaign to continue until October 1st at least, when the Moon and Venus conjoin in the 7th cusp of the campaign chart.

Hillary for Biden?

As the Democrats face the prospect of another electoral defeat, perhaps Barack Obama may execute a last minute Hail Mary pass of his own to match McCain's desperate move of picking Palin: could be drop Joe Biden and pick Hillary Clinton at this late date? This is now actually being considered in the world of political betting, as 8% of participants on Intrade.com believe this will happen, no doubt as a way to salvage Democratic chances in November. There have been rumours about this idea ever since Palin was selected as VP nominee.

Hillary's chart does indeed look very strong in the next week, especially around the 25-26th. Transiting dasha lord Venus conjoins her natal Sun, although that could be due to the resurgence of the Democrats in the polls and the positive response to her campaigning for Obama. Possibly even more powerful is that Jupiter is sitting on her relocated 7th house cusp for Chappaqua, NY using the 20.01 chart. While I had been an advocate for the 8.00 am time for Hillary, it's interesting to see what the potential might be if the 20.01 chart is the correct chart. That stationary Jupiter aspecting the first house in the relocated chart is extremely powerful and is exactly what one would expect to see if she was to suddenly rise in prominence in this race once again. At the same time, transiting Venus and Mars are moving into Biden's 12th house of loss, a possible sign of his growing invisibility in the campaign. It's certainly an intriguing scenario to ponder, especially if the Dems continue to slip in the polls in the coming days. If McCain's poll numbers grow any more, then I would think the likelihood of Hillary replacing Biden would grow substantially. I will investigate this possibility further in the coming days.

The Sarah Palin Factor

We now have a fairly reliable birth time for Sarah Palin -- 4.40 pm. This birth time comes from someone who claims to have seen her birth certificate although it has yet to be confirmed. For the moment, let's go with it. With a timed chart, we can look for additional clues about the outcome of the upcoming election on November 4th. It's a very impressive chart. Cancer rising with first lord Moon closely conjunct benefic Mercury in the 7th house, widely conjunct the Sun. This is a well disposed 7th house indicating she is charming and relates well to other people. Well, no surprise there. And the close aspect of the Sun to the ascendant makes her confident and outgoing. Since it is in a close degree conjunction to Mars and Saturn in the early degrees of Aquarius, this really amps up her assertiveness, initiative and ability to get things done. Jupiter is strong in its own sign of Pisces in the 9th house and aspects the ascendant. Her strong religious faith may partially come from this placement as Jupiter in the 9th inclines a person to follow traditional or conservative spiritual paths. Since Jupiter's aspect is so close to the ascendant, the good fortune of the 9th house is transferred to her whole person.

Perhaps more important is that this chart is running the Jupiter-Venus dasha, which will be in effect until late November. The Jupiter dasha began in 1998 and will run until 2014. As we've seen, Jupiter is very well placed so that is broadly in keeping with her rise in status and power as mayor of Wasilla, then governor of Alaska and now as the VP nominee. As subperiod lord, Venus is very well placed in the 9th house in Pisces, its sign of exaltation and rules the 4th house of happiness and 11th house of gains. This is certainly an excellent combination of planets and generally bodes well for all matters. By itself, however, these planets do not confer victory in the election since they may describe the increase in status that Palin has enjoyed in this race so far. She could still lose the election and look forward to a bright future as a possible presidential candidate in the future. In that sense, the positive karma endowed in the Jupiter-Venus period may only represent her bursting onto the national stage, to say nothing of the collection of action figure dolls.

We also have to look at the situation of the dasha lords in context of the prevailing transits from now until the election. Transiting Jupiter is placed in the 6th house of competition. While this is not a great placement, it may not be that negative either since it may merely reflect the fact that she is engaged in a situation of ongoing conflict. It should also be noted that transiting Jupiter squares its natal position, which is another less than favourable pattern but not a deal breaker. On November 4th, transiting Venus is well placed on the 5th house cusp in late Scorpio and trines the ascendant. There will definitely be some sense of happiness and ease on election day, whatever the result. Transiting Mars squares her Sun on election day, and this suggests an infusion of energy that might be interpreted in various ways. Given Mars' rulership over the 10th house of status, it may be conferring status that goes with an election victory. It may also simply describe the tension and excitement on election day, particularly if the outcome is not known until late.

From that brief analysis, I would say the Palin chart allows for the possibility of a Republican win. However, the absence of any progressed planetary stations in Palin's chart is one important reason why I have nagging doubts that she and McCain can win. While politicians on both winning and losing sides can have supposedly "good" transits at the time of the election, they do not always translate into victory. Very often, the losing candidate's good transits may simply indicate the great public attention they are getting and the culmination of a long, exhausting campaign. Even losing can provide a semblance of relief.

Following the work of astrologer Richard Houck, one of the most important signals of a political win is the presence of a progressed station in a politicians' chart near the time of the election. Just as planetary stations are more powerful indicators of an event for either good or ill, progressed stations are often more emphatic expressions of planetary energy. Mars and Saturn stations are often negative and can indicate losses generally, depending on the larger configuration they are involved in. Mercury, Venus, and Jupiter stations are more commonly associated with successful endeavours, although they, too, can 'go the other way' if they are connected with negative planets and houses.

Of course, the presence or absence of a progressed station is not sufficient to predict the outcome of an election. There may be occasions when no station is necessary for victory, but in my experience these are quite rare. In this case, I note that both Saturn and Uranus are stationing by transit in the month following the election. Because both of these planets are slow moving, their transit stations may have comparable power to the minor progressed station of a fast moving planet that is otherwise not well connected to the rest of the chart. But here again, neither transiting Saturn nor Uranus energize a key point in the natal and relocated Palin charts. This is therefore another potential weakness in her chart that does not seal the deal of the Republican win in November.

As I've said all along, there are some obviously stressful and downright negative characteristics of the Obama chart in November. Like many astrologers, I've wondered aloud if these afflictions might indicate that some harm may come to him, or if he will just lose the election. The chart of the Democratic Party similarly appears to show some kind of conflict or sudden affliction that represents something other than a simple loss at the polls. The Biden chart seems more clearly powerful and positive to me, most obviously because the stationing Saturn-Uranus opposition is so close to his MC-IC.

John McCain's chart has the Saturn-Uranus opposition sitting on his relocated Asc-Dsc for Phoenix. While this may be seen to be roughly equivalent to Biden's situation, I see the involvement with the MC-IC as pertaining more directly to career and status, whereas the ascendant is more about the person himself. McCain also presents an interesting puzzle as far as the progressed stations go. He has a minor progressed Saturn station just a few days after the election. Saturn is often negative, but it's important not to make a snap judgement here. Saturn's progressed station occurs at 28 Aries, in close trine aspect to his natal Venus. Any soft aspect contact with malefics can be an indicator of success. Moreover, McCain's natal Saturn is very strong natally by virtue of it being in its own sign of Aquarius and being in close opposition aspect with Venus. If those were the only influences on McCain's progressed Saturn, then I would think he would win. However, things are murkier because the Saturn is also in a very tight square with minor progressed Mercury. Squares are very rarely good, and Mercury-Saturn squares are almost never indicators of positive events. Also, Saturn is sitting very close to the 8th house cusp of the natal chart. This is an unhelpful influence and reinforces the possibility of obstacles, sudden changes, and disappointments.

Confused yet? So am I! It's a complex picture to be sure, far more than the last presidential election in 2004 or the California election of Schwarzenegger in 2003. I was very confident of both of those successful predictions because the charts seemed unequivocal to me. Here that is not the case. While I still favour the Democrats to win, I'm not at all sure of this prediction. If I was betting, I wouldn't want to put much more than $10 on this outcome.

The other way to look at this election is to get a sense of the prevailing trends. Since the selection of Sarah Palin, the Republicans have gone up in the polls as she has captured much of the media attention once reserved for Barack Obama. McCain is now slightly ahead in the polls, reversing the long-held Obama advantage. I think the pendulum is about to swing back to Obama in the next week. This may probably be helped along by a deteriorating financial situation in the US as I am forecasting stock markets to fall further in the coming weeks. The most difficult time for McCain may be in the last week of September as transiting Saturn conjoins the natal Ketu in his campaign chart. At the same time, transiting Mars will oppose the natal Mercury. I believe that Obama and the Democrats will once again move into the lead in the polls by early October.

But at that point, Obama's campaign will stumble, perhaps fatally, on or around October 15-16 as Mercury stations on the 6th house of the campaign chart at the same time that Mars conjoins the descendant. This is really a very negative pattern that speaks to conflict, misunderstandings, and stress. Since this occurs near the time of the last debate on foreign policy, it may reflect a poor performance by Obama. Since this is the last debate, a bad showing there could be difficult to come back from. Obama will have to be in the lead before this debate in order to have any chance of winning on election day. He is almost certain to lose some popularity as a result of events of Oct. 15th. If he goes on to win, it likely won't be by a wide margin.

The exact Saturn-Uranus opposition on election day promises an election unlike any other. We already know it will be historically significant in some way depending on if Obama or Palin are elected. But I think the extent of the energy and tension of that day will exceed the symbolic nature of the outcome. It promises to be one very wild ride.

Dow plunges 500 points as financial turmoil deepens

The Dow lost 500 points today as Wall St. tried to assess the implications of the bankruptcy of Lehman as the financial crisis deepened over the weekend. The Dow closed at 10,917 while the S&P finished the day at 1192. The S&P close below 1200 was below the previous July low of 1200 while the Dow nears its 2008 intraday low set back in January of 11,700.

This is very close to my prediction of two weeks ago in my long term outlook on my website -- repeated in last week's regular weekly forecast in my regular Market Jyotish blog -- that the markets would fall back to 11,000 and retest previous lows on either the 12th or 15th of September. The central astrological culprit was the trinal aspect of Rahu to Mars which happened to fall on the natal Saturn of the USA chart. Unlike many other configurations which are sometimes open to a lot of interpretation, this seemed like a clearer bearish indicator.

It's possible we will go lower tomorrow, although I'm not at all certain. It is hard to precisely correlate price magnitude with levels of planetary affliction. We should see some buying later in the week at least, although Friday looks negative. The market looks quite negative for the coming weeks. More significant declines are likely in early October and then again in the first week of November. The November decline looks worst and may be on the order of 10% or more in a single day. There's a good chance that the November decline will become known as a "crash".

I'm not sure where or when we might see the bottom but anything is possible here, including all the way down to 7500 and the 2002 lows by December. In other words, we may have another 25-30% to go in the short term. This is admittedly a worse case scenario, but the planets are indicating a grim mood in the coming weeks. A best case scenario might be a decline of another 10% -- down to 9700. That seems far too optimistic, however. I think the early October decline will put us under 10,000 as it is.