Canadian Elections

The campaign is almost half over and there's been no significant change in party support since the election was called. I still think the Liberals and Martin are vulnerable in January because of the proximity of transit Jupiter to Canada's 8th house natal Saturn. Jupiter represents the government and rulers in this chart so things will get quite murky then. One difficulty for Canadian political astrologers is that there may not be a clear winner on January 23rd. Unlike the US election system, Canada's government is elected indirectly through the party having the greatest number of seats in parliament. Even if the incumbent Liberals win the most seats, they will more than likely not be able to form a comfortable majority in the House. This was the situation at the dissolution of the last parliament.

So as an astrologer, although I can see problems for Martin and a boost for Harper's fortunes, the question of who will form the next government requires more interpretive skills. There's little doubt that a another minority government is on the way, but if the Liberals win fewer seats than they had before, this would be a symbolic defeat, even if they formed the government. This government would be increasingly unworkable since it's even more unlikely that the Liberals traditional allies, the NDP would win enough seats to form the balance of power. Such a parliament would probably only last a few months before another election is called.

Another possible scenario is that the Conservatives will win the majority of seats but not enough for a majority government. Since the NDP is less likely to support the Conservatives, this would make any Conservative minority government equally unstable. For reasons of optics, the Tories would be unwilling to overly rely on Bloc Quebecois support.

I'm still calling for a defeat of the Martin government at this point, although I recognize there is a possibility that he will only be defeated symbolically, by virtue of winning less seats then they have now. In terms of numbers, the Liberals currently hold about 135 seats, the Conservatives 99 seats, the Bloc 50, and the NDP 19. 155 seats are needed to form a stable majority government that can consistently win votes in a 308-seat House of Commons. Certainly, the planets in late January tell me that the Libs will probably win fewer seats, say 125 or less. Even if the NDP holds on to its 20 seats (and I actually doubt they will), this will be recipe for disorder in the House as the Tories and the Bloc will certainly boost their seat count and will feel emboldened to force another election at the earliest opportunity.

In any event, the political scene looks very unstable for the next few months and another election is very possible within 6 months.