After Barack Obama's victories in Wyoming and Mississippi, the Democratic campaign has entered a new, protracted phase of thrust and parry in advance of the next primary in Pennsylvania on April 22. The most recent manifestation came in the form of Geraldine Ferraro's apparent playing of the race card which led to cries of racism from the Obama side and her subsequent resignation from her fund raising post in the Clinton campaign. This conflict can be seen in the Clinton campaign chart (Jan 20 2007 9.30 am) through the transit of Mars opposing the natal Mars earlier this week. No surprise there.
Hillary may get a bit of a boost around March 14-15 (maybe tomorrow afternoon), as the tr. Moon-Mars conjunction forms a grand trine with tr Venus and her natal Sun. At the same time, the transiting Moon-Mars conjunction will sit on his natal Venus suggesting anger or problems involving women while transiting Sun falls under the aspect of his natal Saturn pointing to frustration and thwarting of plans.
More significantly, the end of March looks troublesome for Obama, as Mercury and Venus oppose his natal Mars. It seems he will suffer from some sort of unwanted dispute or conflict from March 26-31. Hillary's chart looks quite good at that time, as those transiting benefics will conjoin her natal Moon, so we can expect to see her hand strengthened. The HRC campaign chart will have tr Mercury and Venus crossing the ascendant then, so that is another clue that her profile and popularity will grow at the end of the month. This will be roughly the beginning of some tougher times for the Obama campaign as we approach April 22. The planets clearly indicate a Clinton win in Pennsylvania. In her natal chart on April 22, there is a grand trine between transiting Uranus (27 Aquarius) and transiting Mars (27 Gemini) and her natal Mercury and Ascendant (28 Libra). This is a powerful pattern for victory. Her dasha lord Venus will be at its maximum degree of exaltation. Given her high profile in the world right now, I think that Hillary best personifies that exalted Venus, notwithstanding Samantha Power's "monster" comments. Venus is transiting Revati, a Mercury-owned nakshatra and Mercury is a very good planet for HRC since it is on her ascendant. Also, when the voting results come in, the transiting Moon will be conjunct her natal Jupiter, which supports a successful outcome.
On the Obama side, things don't look as good. In his campaign chart, the transiting Mars will have just opposed the natal Mars within the previous week, which suggests that some of the Ferraro-type headaches that Clinton has had to deal with this week will be much fresher in the voters minds when the go to the polls. Plus, tr. Mars is just one degree from the IC on the 22nd indicating upset or irritation. While Jupiter is on the MC at the same time, I don't see this as favourable pattern because of the natal Mars weakness that I've mentioned previously, although I can understand if others might regard it more in terms of "activation of leadership", etc. In his natal chart, tr Mercury (communication) will form a t-square with Sun (self) and Neptune (confusion) suggesting that his message won't be well received while tr Sun (self) forms a second t-square with his natal Jupiter (ideas) and Mercury (communication) which will likely produce a negative combination of those keywords in the form of a failed attempt to persuade voters. Or in other words, an overconfidence in ideas that don't catch on or backfire.
Apr 22 looks like it will be a significant defeat for Obama and may well fuel a Clinton momentum that more than makes up for any deficit in delegates. I don't think Hillary's win will be enough to erase the deficit (she would have to win something like 80-20!), this does look like a large Ohio-sized win that fills her campaign with confidence. This is roughly in keeping with current polling which shows her enjoying a double-digit lead. Given that Michigan and Florida primaries will be redone and Hillary is favoured to win in both states, there is good reason that Clinton can substantially close the electibility gap on the delegate count alone. With Obama's sagging popularity going into the the later contests, Hillary will be able to make a stronger case to superdelegates.
At this point, I'm not certain if she wins during the primary season or at the convention. I had thought that Obama's chart looked worst in May and June and that reflected a final defeat for him. This still seems the most likely scenario. Mid-June looks quite important as it is the time of the Mars-Ketu conjunction that is prominent in both candidates campaign charts and suggests a messy, contested result.
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31 comments:
I've somehow missed your recent posts, Chris - were they on the Astrology News widget? Caught up now.
I've been thinking of what you said a week or more ago about trouble being likely for Obama via women or woman. The samantha Powers flap, then the Ferraro flap both fitted the bill, but something which has flowed from both of those is the re-airing of videos featuring Rev Jeremisah Wright, pastor of O's church.
It seems to me that resulting sentiments of those who watch the the videos have the potential to hurt Obama's candidacy more than anything so far. He has been a member of this man's congregation for 20 years contributed to his church, married there, children baptized there, and the pastor is engaged in his campaign in some role or other I think.
This would have been a weapon used by the Republicans in due course, but I guess the "racial" tinge to Ms Ferraro's comment brought it forth early - in retaliation.
Might this be a reason for the drop in popularity you are seeing for O?
twilight -
Sorry, I dont know what you mean about the Astrology news widget.
It seems that these little campaign missteps are double edged swords. The Samantha Power flap was obviously embarrassing to Obama and yet she managed to call Clinton a "monster" which a good number of people would agree with. So the gaffe can also have unanticipated good effects on the those who stumble. The Ferraro incident is even more double edged in this as you rightly suggest. While it sort of looked bad for Clinton, race immediately was discussed in the media as a bonafide issue which has arguably had a good effect on the Clinton campaign. The airing of the Wright video was a downstream effect of Ferraro and I agree with you, it is much worse than anything Ferraro said. One wonders if the Ferraro move was deliberate by the Clinton campaign. Raise an issue that HRC can't raise herself and have someone take the heat from it while it pushes the media in a direction that is likely favourable to the HRC. Pretty smart. In that sense of whose gaffes are worse, Hillary's campaign has done far better lately than Obama's.
The female factor here of the afflicted Venus in Obama's chart is partially fufilled by Ferraro, although if this Rev Wright thing really takes off, then that's really quite different. After all, I didn't predict trouble from spiritual advisors! Although it is interesting that Obama's Venus is placed in the 9th house of, you guessed it, religion and higher knowledge. So its affliction would tend to bring those elements of his life into focus and a be a source of stress.
Hmmmm - 9th house eh? Interesting!
I'll watch events closely.
The Astrology News (Top Ten) widget carries astrology blogs, I think it picks them up by RSS feed or some other technicality I don't understand. It usually picks up mine within the hour after publishing. That was where I first saw your blog. Maybe your most recent posts were shown there and I just I missed them.
If you haven't noticed the widget, have a look at the sidebar in my blog, click on something in the box, then you could look for Elsa's posts in the list and contact her if you're not already on the list for the feed and wish to be included. She organises the astrology section of Top Ten lists.
Hi
Rev. Wright has done a great favor to Hillary...Obama's credibility has taken a drubbing and it looks unlikely this controversy will be forgotten by the electorate very quickly as some of pro-obama people in the media predict...This is a good time for Hillary to woo the democrats of the remaining states and surpass obama in popular votes if not in delegate count...
This Wright connection seems to be a worse kind of thing than the various campaign missteps. This is a permanent association with somebody who is politically unpalatable to not only the mainstream of American voters, but to a good many Obama supporters. If Hillary is still close in the polls in PA, she may find a way to allude to this connection. Dems shouldn't blame her for going after him -- the GOP will do it 10 ten times worse in the real campaign.
This race issue has taken an interesting(formidable for obama supporters)turn. every news channel is focusing on this and it seems that this controversy will haunt obama for a long time. his speech was eloquent but lacked substance and he seemed to be trying to evade the important questions and did not disown rev wright. in the meantime hillary has been closing in in north carolina and widening her gap with obama in pennsylvania...
her stars really look bright...and is this the beginning of the end of obama??
At first I didn't think the pastor issue will hurt Obama that much but its really taken off. Videos make such a big difference. I bet this gives the superdelegates that were planning to vote for Obama some pause. The speech was a bad idea because that makes people more aware of the issue and go watch Wright's videos. There are some rumors on internet that Fox news has some more videos that shows Obama in the audience when Wright made some of these comments. That would be certainly a killer. Also anything can come out of the Rezko trial. Obama is down 7 points to Clinton in daily gallup when he was up by 6 points couple of weeks ago.
Chris was right on this. The whole thing started around March 14th.
Hey Folks,
I thought it was a great speech. It was his only chance and stay true to form by being honest and personal.
But it probably won't matter now. Whatever boost Obama got from the speech (NYT is quite supportive for instance), it will disappear by next week which appears to belong to HRC.
Hillary has her own problems though. It looks as though there won't be a FL vote and MI is in jeopardy. Maybe if she can show that BHO is blocking it somehow, which is being rumoured. Without those big states under her belt, its harder to even the delegate and pop vote gap.
But she will win somehow!
There are few negative things for Obama that are getting some play in MSM. For example, Obama calling his grandmother a "typical white person" which is getting some play in the news media. Here is what he said:
The point I was making was not that my grandmother harbors any racial animosity. She doesn't. But she is a typical white person who, uh, if she sees somebody on the street that she doesn't know there's a reaction that's been been bred into our experiences that don't go away and that sometimes come out in the wrong way and that's just the nature of race in our society. We have to break through it. ... .."
Also, there is John Kerry's video & Claire McKaskil's comments which I think were dumb and not something Obama needs at this time.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T71c2FXsbEw&eurl=http://taylormarsh.com/
what a pit obama has dug for himself by urging people to engage in a race debate when the economy is reeling under recession and people are dying in iraq!! His popularity is going down and the independents are fleeing him as fast as they can. The scenario is changing as you have predicted chris. kudos to you. I will love to see the rest of your predictions come true...
Well, it's not quite like Obama has become typhoid Mary or anything. He's still very much in the driver's seat, and despite some sagging poll numbers of late, the inability to get redos in MI and FL thus far has to be seen as a big plus for him. It makes it almost impossible for HRC to win more delegates or votes which will likely sway the SDs.
The race issue may be corrosive in the long run, but most media people are not seeing it as something that will prevent him from winning the nomination.
I predicted earlier that Hillary will receive some good fortune this week as Merc and Venus come to the Ascendant of her campaign chart. Maybe it's something good on the redo front, or it's more dirt on Obama, or something else entirely. She certainly could use it, because just winning PA isn't enough for her. She's got to get something else going for her that extends beyond PA.
Andrew Austin sums up nicely what my intuition was saying to me from the moment I heard Obama speak:
"One of the hallmarks of the cult of personality is that people see something that’s not there. They swoon and cry over empty rhetoric. They mistake political ambition for profound discovery. They believe that something is wrong with the dissenters."
The psychopathy of the cult leader holds that they do not recognize the individuality or rights of others, which makes all self-serving behaviors--as seeking to shut out voters in two states-- permissible. They are stiflers posing as liberators.
Well I'm off my soapbox now to thank you, Christopher, for yor excellent predictions and anlyses!I can hardly wait for the latest update as I write this on 3/22.
Yikes! Sorry for the two typos in the last para of my previous post.
I meant "your" and "analyses."
Chris, thanks for your very instructive commentary - i'm starting to deepen my interest in Vedic astrology, and your detailed explanations are so helpful - i have a question for you - I just read that : "ABC will televise a 90-minute debate between the two in primetime on Wednesday, April 16, beginning live at 8 p.m. EDT on the East Coast and tape-delayed at 8 p.m. PDT for the West Coast. The debate, to take place at the National Constitutional Center in Philadelphia six days before the Pennsylvania primary, will be moderated by "World News" anchor Charles Gibson and "This Week" host George Stephanopoulos." I was wondering if you could comment on the transit s for both candidates for the debate - Thanks so much.
Hi Chris,
I am one of your fans I've been following your blogs and checking it everyday for updates. I am very fascinated with astrology especially your reading on the democratic race. Thanks for your analysis.
Hi Chris,
I agree with you that it's a tough road for her to win.
I recently saw this article: Clinton Camp on Hillary's Chances
Especially after finding out that there's not going to be a revote in either Florida or Michigan (the deadline for it has passed already), to top that off, Bill Richardson's endorsement of Obama. (I am guessing that he's been promised some high-profile role in the new administration if Obama wins or may be even the VP spot). The race issue is the only thing that has gotten a great deal of press coverage (mainly from Fox News), and it seems that Obama using the "typical white person" remark might result in some backlash. But, people no longer see him as the candidate who transcends race, which might cause him problems in the general election, but not necessarily hurt him in the primary. She needs some big numbers in PA and every remaining state. He has a straight shot: all he needs to do is win 45%of the remaining delegates, and he'd still be ahead in the delegate count. I personally prefer Hillary to win. Hopefully, there will be some other big break or revelation this week. Oh on a light-hearted front, some GOP people are becoming more weary of Obama, hence GOP might crossover to vote for Hillary to give her a boost, even if they dislike her. See this post: Rush the vote
And this as well: Hillary's Conservative Friends
But only thing left to do is wait and see how this all unfolds. Right now, and since winning in Feb, Obama has held the advantage. It's his nomination to lose.
Hillary is having a tough time suddenly...her "sniper" problem seems to have overshadowed the pastor problem of obama for the time being. Again the media(CBS) has come to obama's rescue. Why has it again turned obama's way? what do you make of it chris? obama has again widening his gap with her in north carolina and several other states....
This seems to be more like a glass half-full\half-empty type of thing. The snafu about Bosnia, although it was foolish in a campaign where everything is scrutinized with a microscopic lense, I think it has a rather short lifespan. First, it proves that Clinton was the only first lady or presidential candidate to visit the troops and the warzone (although much of the hostilities had ended), it was a trip of goodwill and it shows her desire to reach out to people. We don't expect our politicians to be perfect - but rather more honest than Bush or Cheney. Obama told a similar lie by down-playing his knowledge of his former pastor's incindiery comments, on all the news channels, and then telling a different story in his race speech. Also, Obama has some of his own "misstatements" in his book. Politicians sometimes exaggerate the truth, the problem is Clinton cannot afford any missteps at this time, although she's still ahead in PA. As she continues, what she's aiming for is likely a stalemate where neither of them wins the magic number of delegates to clinch the nomination. That to Obama's dismay is likely something she'll pull-off. As I see it, as long as her tens of millions of supporters continue to cheer for her, vote for her and contribute to her campaign, she has no reason to quit this race.
Also, a plus for Clinton - there was supposed to be an anti-clinton movie come out and that's been shotdown. Right now, that's the last thing she needs showing in selected theaters =)
I agree with blazer that the sniper snafu is probably nowhere near as damaging as rev. wright. still it's true HRC has been flagging lately. I don't know the quick answer for that. I still think the next few days ought to see her get a boost from somewhere. Not that the boost, wherever it comes from, will be decisive in PA and after. She's going to win that anyway. But every little bit helps.
Things are not really looking very bright for Hillary...the press has again turned it's guns against her and the superdelegates have suddenly started to gravitate towards Obama. Bill Richarson endorsed Obama the other day absolutely surprising the Hillary supporters. Even if she wins most of the subsequent primaries I don't see how she can win the nomination at this stage. Something has to happen that will absolutely ruin the Obama campaign and there's nothing like that in sight. Also a recent Gallup poll shows that Obama is leading Hillary by 8 points. Though I don't really believe in polls that much but a 8 point lead really scares me. How can someone's stars remain so strong for so long...ain't happened for me...
Anales, it's true, but what's more surprising to me is the ability of her and her supporters to keep going in face of these odds. Obama outspent her in Ohio and Texas in every way and still couldn't win the states. Also, since the media right now supports him 100%, he can do no wrong.
I also noticed that a lot of good things about Clinton aren't being reported on the news, only bad things are getting greater publicity. So, hence it's a skewered perception. Conversely, bad things about Obama are being ignored, while good things are being trumpeted.
With that said, the only show on MSNBC worth watching is Morning Joe, (if you're looking for a realistic and a more balanced perspective on things). Lou Dobbs on CNN is also good and Fox News for the most part has not been as slanted (surprisingly) as the rest of the news media. Fairness means being tough on someone when they mess up and giving credit where credit is due.
I suspect things seem particularly grim right now. The cards are definitely stacked against Hillary. If she can still pull off a convincing win in PA even after being outspent 4 to 1, the constant bad news media coverage and super delegate defection and voices calling for her to drop out, I think it will give a much needed boost and people may start to come around. Mainly, they will wonder if Obama couldn't win with all this how would he win against McCain.
Also, looks like Obama has messed up, but it hasn't been getting the news coverage it ought to be getting. He copied Clinton's Second Economic Stimulus package and has been critized for changing his positions on key issues since he was an Illinois State Senator.
I say if she still wins a majority of the primaries ahead after all this, her stars are lucky indeed, if not, heck people will simply still admire her for standing up and facing the challenge instead of backing away.
OK. I was revisiting the math this morning. Hillary could still win the popular vote with the 10 remaining contests. Of the 27 million votes already cast, they are separated by less than 3 percent, with millions more to still vote. If she manages to win big in PA, IN (which she's also favored to win), come close in NC, and also win in KY, SD...etc. She might come out ahead in popular votes. Then the question becomes, he's ahead in the delagate count, she's ahead in the popular vote. Who's got the mandate, and how to count FL and MI?
Speaker of the house, Pelosi said today that the race should play itself out and Superdelegates have the right to choose whomever they think would be the better candidate.
May be Clinton had better fundraising numbers in March than she did in Feb...We'll see.
Folks I am convinced now...unless something really magical happens(i wish...!!!)Hillary won't win the nomination. Even in Pennsylvania Obama's gap with Hillary is shrinking and theres still a long way to go till the pennsylvania primary. She needs to win pennsylvania convincingly by a double digit margin. Obama is outspending her 4 to 1 in pennsylvania and it certainly looks bleak for her cash-strapped campaign. Even if she wins the primary it may not be decisive. I trust chris's prediction that obama's campaign will get into bad times during april 22 and won't recover enough to clinch the nomination and I am waiting for that day when it happens....but the wait seems to be really long....and going by the way obama is ducking every controversy and the way national media is fawning over obama ignoring all his follies and treating him like god the wait seems to be for something really far fetched...
It certainly looks that way doesn't it? I agree she has to win big. I hadn't seen the latest poll numbers when I made that last post, which have been unfavorable, 5 points is bad, she was leading by 16, two weeks ago. I remember when the Rev. Wright controversy came out, it was going to be tough for Obama...I remember thinking Hillary had a shoe-in PA. That seems like eons ago, yet only little over two weeks have passed. In this political campaign season, anything seems possible and three weeks from now until April 22nd is a long time. Lets watch and see what happens.
The only thing I think that can save her, revive her, is perhaps a John Edwards endorsement. That's actually what had crossed my mind when Chris mentioned the boost for Hillary. That would go a long way to help her secure the nomination. Just as Bill Richardson's endorsement helped Obama weather the Wright controversy.
I agree. John Edwards endorsement would be a real big boost not only for PA but major for North Carolina. Interestingly Elizabeth Edwards praised Hillary's Health Care Proposal and was skeptical about both McCain and Obama plans. May be this is the start to Clinton's Direction. Would really be a big boost to Hillary
I don't know what's going on. It seems like the Wright incident did not have a lasting effect on OBH. Right now, not only it's an uphill battle for HRC, it is getting to be a rocky one too!
The Wright thing (temporarily) went away due to Bill Richardson coming out and endorsing Obama in spite of it. The media took it as a sign, that Super Delegates weren't backing away and it shifted the focus from Obama's problem to the in-fighting in the democratic party (with Carville and so on and so forth). (Note this does not mean that it won't be a general election issue for him). After Richardson, it was only a matter of time before others followed. Until then, no one else wanted to be the first person after Wright to endorse Obama. In fact, Hillary got two key endorsements that week in PA. The Obama campaign was shooting at itself, with bad PR for a whole week, trying to contain the issue. If it had been allowed to continue or run its due course and had Richardson not made an endorsement, I think we would be in a completely different situation right about now.
It is excruciating to see the press making fools of themselves with Obama. For 5 straight days I have seen the clips of him bowling in Altoona (hopefully the 37 he got in that game and the gutter ball is a sign of things to come!)and I am tired of it. This devout Democrat is (gulp!) watching FOX News for fair and balanced news! (I can't believe I just said that).
This is all hard to take, but won't it be won't it be sweeter when she wins the nomination!
It certainly will be great if inspite of all speculations and defections of superdelegates she gets the nomination. That will be a slap on the faces of the likes of Bill Richardson. Kind of surprising that no one is talking about how Bill Richardson's defection reflects on the integrity of his character. I would love to see his political career ruined which will be the case if she wins the nomination. American media has never been so biased. The media favoritism of Obama is now bordering on obscene.
Those of you who can't vote, but would still like to see her win this presidency, could Contribute small amounts $ to Hillary's campaign through her Web Site
www.hillaryclinton.com (Click on Contribute).
I am unfortunately maxed out on my credit card, otherwise I would give more money.
Looks like Obama outraised her 2 to 1 in March (sigh). He's outspending her on adds in PA. If Chris is right, that won't matter. But, she's definitely behind in the fundraising.
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