Trouble looms for the Obama campaign

While Hillary Clinton is poised for a lopsided win in West Virginia tonight, most observers no longer consider the primaries to be relevant any more, now that Barack Obama has moved into an unassailable delegate lead. Obama is now focusing his campaign speeches exclusively on Republican John McCain while wooing superdelegates in Washington. This is clearly his time to bask in the media glow as the de facto presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party.

Despite this apparent resolution in this fractious and hard-fought race, I believe that this situation will be thrown into chaos in the weeks ahead as some very malefic alignments form in the Obama campaign chart. (Feb 10 2007 10.13 a.m. Springfield, IL). Given the uncertainty that surrounds Obama's actual birth time (and Hillary's, too, for that matter) , the campaign launch charts have been fairly reliable indicators of the ebb and flow of the race. Although I've made some interpretive mistakes here and there, I can think of no better confirmation of the usefulness of this chart than the Jupiter station that occurred exactly on the Midheaven (unequal 10th house cusp) during last week, when Obama was flying high coming off the convincing win in NC. While I saw him doing well on May 6th, I underestimated the power of this configuration. The Jupiter station has raised him from frontrunner to de facto nominee as most observers agree that his lead cannot be surmounted by Hillary and the race is essentially over.

While I am reluctant to argue against something as powerful as a Jupiter station on the 10th house cusp, I can't help but see that Obama is going to be sideswiped very soon. One of the distinguishing features of the his campaign chart is a t-square involving Saturn (27 Cancer) , Moon (0 Scorpio), and a conjunction of Neptune (25 Capricorn) and the Sun (27 Capricorn). This is a negative influence as I see it, and suggests the failure or loss (Saturn) of a popular (Moon) dream (Neptune) of a leader (Sun). This potential will be realized through the movements of two key planets -- Rahu/Ketu and Mars. The Lunar Nodes, Rahu and Ketu, are fast approaching this Sun-Neptune-Saturn configuration. While the nodes have a changeable influence, they are more neutrally associated with breaking down structures and normal patterns. Rahu will soon conjoin the natal Sun-Neptune and produce exaggerated and distorted sense of idealism, overconfidence and entitlement, while Ketu comes to the Saturn and will tend to erase boundaries and structures of power. It's important to note that Hillary Clinton has a similar architecture of planets that will be subjected to this nodal influence in June and July. In her case, however, the Moon and Venus take the place of Obama's Sun. So it's clear that the nodal transit to this point (25-27 Capricorn) will cause great changes to the dynamic of the race. I think the effect of this transiting Rahu will be more damaging to Obama because his natal planets are aligned with that Moon in the first degree of Scorpio.

This is a potentially difficult placement since the Moon is debilitated in Scorpio and is associated with excessive and unpredictable emotions, weakness and sickness (especially with the Neptune influence) and difficulties involving women and sexuality. While this may simply refer to the fact that his main opponent in this race is a woman, I think there is also the possibility that he may be embarrassed by some kind scandal, perhaps one that involves sex. Another possible explanation might be some kind of unethical real estate dealings that come to light, because the debilitated Moon, as 4th lord of home and land is placed in the malefic 8th house. I know there has already been some talk of real estate transactions involving the shady Chicago political mogul Tony Rezko, so it's possible that something like that might come back into the picture. Still another possible scenario involves an exogenous event such as a sudden geopolitical or military development that compels people to rethink their confidence in Obama. In such a event, his perceived softness in foreign policy might be compounded by ill-considered comments. The most obvious time window to watch for these events to unfold is when transiting Mars moves into the first degree of Leo around June 21. This difficult and disturbing situation may in fact manifest earlier, say starting around June 14 when transiting Mars conjoins the transiting Ketu to conjoin the natal Saturn.

While there is likely going to be a single event that changes the race, I am also expecting Hillary's fortunes to improve perhaps as soon as the last week of May. This may not correspond to much improvement in her chances of winning right away, but look for hints of better coverage and small successes. This will be partially due to the retrograding of Mercury then, which occurs on May 26th, which his is often associated with reversals of established trends. The first significant indicator that Hillary's fortunes are looking up should come around June 3rd when transiting Mars conjoins its natal position in Hillary's chart. With Mars in her 10th house of status and leadership, this looks like a bold, assertive, in-your-face sort of move. This corresponds with the date of the last primary, so it likely has something to do with delegate counts and possibly the ongoing dispute over the Michigan and Florida delegates. It seems unlikely that Hillary can reverse this Obama coronation at the convention through purely tactical and legal means, since her aides admitted said that she still trails Obama even when potential delegates from MI and FL are included in the count. I think for the race to be recast, I think the scandal/big event scenario seems more likely. And yet, there is also a sense of a gradual shift in momentum that happens here over the course of June and beyond. I'll see if I can post something else if details become clearer to me.

Two other dates to watch out for are July 28th and August 5th. On July 28th, transiting Mars conjoins the natal Ketu of the Obama campaign chart. Since Hillary's chart has more or less the same placement of the nodes, this looks to be a sudden situation that catches people off guard, perhaps in both camps. What's worse for Obama is that this Mars will oppose his Venus which is often a sign of conflict, anger and loss of happiness. As I've mentioned before, the first week of August, These looks extremely volatile as tr Mars opposes tr Uranus. This will negatively activate the Mars in the Democratic Party chart as well as the Mars in Obama's birth chart. This appears to be the time of the most intense conflict and state of upset and division between the two rival campaigns. This fight may threaten the very existence of the Democratic Party.

In a nutshell, this race is far from over. And I still think Hillary Clinton will somehow emerge as the Democratic nominee.

When a split is really a win

Things are again looking very precarious for Hillary Clinton after Tuesday's primaries. Hillary Clinton did manage to split by winning Indiana but overall the night belonged to Barack Obama as he easily won North Carolina and increased his delegate and popular vote lead. Most pundits are now saying the race is essentially over and even Clinton supporter George McGovern has now suggested that she leave the race. My central focus last night was on how the tr Venus transiting over the Obama campaign chart's ascendant would manifest. Since this was a clear signal for happiness and rewards for Obama, I thought it might have meant a sweep for him. As it turned out, he did basically carry the evening by increasing his delegate and vote lead and stopped whatever momentum Hillary had as a result of the Wright controversy. Clearly, that campaign chart is correct and is a good barometer of how things are going. The Clinton win in IN also gave her reason to fight on and therefore also fulfills my prediction that Howard Dean would be somewhat frustrated by the events of last night (including the tardy Lake county results), as he seeks to end the race as soon as possible and avoid a damaging fight at the convention in August.

It's no secret that the coming days are going to be difficult for Hillary. She's had to loan her campaign $6.4 million to keep it going. There will likely be more superdelegates coming out for Obama to further increase the pressure on her to drop out. The astrological signs support this picture of a difficult time for her. A few dates stand out. First, I see that tr Mars and tr Moon will oppose the Sun in her campaign chart on May 10, which suggests conflict and stress from authority figures. This may manifest as a significant endorsement for Obama ahead of the West Virginia primary on May 13. Interestingly, this coincides with tr Mercury aspecting the natal Jupiter which can indicate some major news development. While not necessarily unfavourable, since it coincides with the Mars-Sun aspect, I don't see this as helpful to Hillary. It is conceivable there may be a silver lining here, although I wouldn't bet on it.

The other key date is the primary itself on May 13. There will be a rather close planetary alignment that day which features the Sun in a square to the nodes, Rahu and Ketu. And remember that Neptune is conjunct Rahu so that's essentially a four-planet pattern. The problem for Hillary is that this t-square is configured closely with her 1-7 axis (ascendant-descendant). While this is not inherently bad, the tr Sun will receive the exact aspect of her 10th house natal Saturn that night. While Saturn has some strength to bring fame by virtue of its 10th house placement, this square aspect is often a difficult energy to handle and often indicate loss (Saturn) of ego and vitality (Sun). Moreover, the tr Sun will conjoin Hillary's natal Rahu, which also tends to be problematic and speaks of situations that cause upset or are disruptive. Another potentially unhelpful aspect is formed by tr. 8th lord Mars which squares her natal Sun. While this infuses energy and combativeness, the square aspect is usually too much to deal with and since Mars is her 8th lord of obstacles and anxiety, this is a another clue that the evening will not go well. Of course, in Hillary's chart, Mars is placed in the 10th house of status and fame, so there is some kind of a boost in status here. But collectively, these planets suggest poor results.

On Obama's side, the picture is better. In his natal chart, on May 13, tr Sun and tr Jupiter form a grand trine with his natal Mars. This is a powerful and almost always positive pattern that is what one would expect for a victory. It's true that tr Mars is conjunct his Mercury so there will be some rancour and intense competition that day, but this is in keeping with a closely-fought election race. In his campaign chart, he is currently enjoying the fruits of a Jupiter station on his Midheaven (unequal 10th house cusp). This station (reversal of planetary direction) occurs on the 9th and will be trined by tr Sun on the 13th. This is a very significant marker for a successful endeavour. It's hard to see the outcome as anything but an Obama victory in West Virginia.

Since this is supposed to be a Hillary-friendly state, this may be part of an endgame that will play itself out in the coming days. It's worth noting that the grand trine that Obama's chart has with the Sun-Jupiter aspect is also seen in the chart of the Democratic Party since their Mars' are conjunct around 27-29 Leo. This likely reflects the Obama victory and the momentum he will gain when the party begins to rally to him. The grand trine is repeated a few days later on May 18th as Venus takes the place of the Sun. This may be another significant date in the campaign and may represent another boost for Obama and a further sense of resolution and calming in the party.

So is there any way Hillary can win this thing now? There's no question the short term astrological indicators look very challenging for her. From a purely political perspective, I don't know how she could possibly withstand another defeat and stay in the race. So I think there is a very real chance that she will pull out, either on the 13th or perhaps on the 18th. This isn't likely mind you, just a reflection of how difficult the transits at that time will be for her. I realize this makes mincemeat of my prediction that she would win, but given the forces aligned against her, this is going to be a very difficult time for her. Can she pull a rabbit out of her hat? I don't see this happening in the next couple of weeks. And yet I feel that the unresolved issues of Florida and Michigan will somehow continue to haunt this race. Early August appears to be a key moment where events and conflicts may overtake the campaign. Tr Saturn opposes natal Mercury in the Obama campaign chart suggesting obstacles or disappointments while Ketu conjoins the Uranus in the Democratic Party chart indicating possible sudden disruptive events. It's also possible that these patterns reflect Democrat setbacks in the election vs. the Republicans. Regardless, the convention promises to be lively to say the least.


What really makes me think that something hasn't been resolved yet is that the chart of Democratic Party is so troubled (May 13, 1792, shown at right). This makes me wonder what sort of new and unpredictable scenario may emerge between here to November. I note that in the spring of 1968, tr Pluto conjoined the natal Mars (27 Leo) of the Democratic Party chart. This coincided with the tumult within the party that arose after President Johnson refused to seek re-election in the wake of the ongoing protests against the Vietnam War. As a result, the race opened up to include anti-war candidates Robert Kennedy and Eugene McCarthy. While RFK was assassinated, McCarthy ending up losing to pro-war Hubert Humphrey in a brokered convention where party insiders ruled the day. To cut to the chase: in November, Saturn and Uranus will form an opposition just two degrees from that Mars, with Saturn forming the conjunction. While this is a different energy than Pluto, it is still very disruptive and suggests that struggles and conflict will dog the party for most of the campaign. In fact, this almost looks like the party itself will be in turmoil near election day, and probably not just because of what transpires at the polls. It's hard to imagine what sort of unusual development this may indicate, but several options are possible, including the possibility that the Democrats will not be united. Saturn and Uranus are like opposites -- the rigid structure of tradition coming in contact with an indomitable Promethean energy. Moreover they are trying to find an accommodation through Mars, the planet of aggression and action. It's a tension-filled trinity of planets that will rule the US in November. One thing is for sure: this will not be a routine election from here on in. I will post more updates as time allows.

Obama slipping in latest polls

Hillary Clinton's campaign appears to be getting a double-barreled boost from her Pennsylvania win and the seemingly inexplicable desire of Rev. Jeremiah Wright to destroy Barack Obama's political future. The intense media scrutiny of Wright's comments and Obama's reaction to them has once again raised questions about his electability. Hillary has now moved into a statistical tie in national polls and more importantly ahead in Indiana, which votes on May 6. I had predicted an Obama setback around this time (May 2) and it seems that I was off a few days with the reigniting of the Wright controversy.

Given the current trends, it seems that my previous prediction -- although it was anything but confident -- of an Obama win in Indiana is going to be wrong. Given the current dynamics, it is hard to see how Hillary will lose Indiana. Certainly, this fits in with my larger prediction that she will win the nomination. Losing in Indiana would make that almost impossible, so I'm actually quite pleased that she's ahead there as it gives her a realistic chance. Nonetheless, from an astrological perspective, I still have to address some unanswered questions, specifically why is Venus rising in the Obama campaign chart on May 6th? It's conceivable that this may signal some setback because of Venus' natal conjunction with Rahu, but it's not at all what one would expect. And it's possible that the Venus (happiness) stands for some other favourable development in the campaign other than the Indiana result. Astrology is, above all, a science of inference. The other more unsettling possibility is that the campaign chart isn't actually that reliable. I'm not willing to go that far yet but a big Hillary win in Indiana that further encroaches on Obama's status as front runner will undermine my faith in it.

Given Howard Dean's likely preference for Obama, it's likely that the problems I saw in his chart for May 6th reflect Hillary winning. With her already widening the lead in the most recent Indiana polls, a Clinton win seems to be the most likely manifestation of Dean's annoyance and disappointment rather than my speculation of legal challenges of primary results on election night.

Although I had been predicting a Hillary win in this race for months, I couldn't quite see how she could actually do it in political terms given her deficit in delegate support. The ongoing media appetite for the Wright controversy and the related issue of Obama's inability to appeal to working class Democrats supplies the plausible answer to this puzzle. If she manages to win both IN and NC that would accelerate the questions about Obama. I still don't see her winning NC, but I have to be honest and say I can't see this one very clearly. Perhaps it means the results overall will be ambiguous, or perhaps it's just an artifact of my chart reading limitations.

I'm looking at the Sun-Saturn square near May 22nd as another potentially significant date for the campaign. This appears to favour Hillary because the transiting Sun, the 11th lord of gains, aspects her Jupiter in the 2nd house of status. In Obama's chart, by contrast, this completes the negative feedback look to his natal Taurus Moon. Given the proximity of the Kentucky and Oregon primaries on May 20th, I think this bodes well for Hillary's results there. I'll try to refine the predictions later on.