Hillary's last stand

As the pivotal primaries in Ohio and Texas loom ever-larger for Hillary
Clinton, her campaign for the Democratic nomination is now entering the
realm of the long shot. The political betting site intrade.com now lists
her chances as just 17% of winning the nomination against Barack Obama's
83%. Pundits are attempting to sketch out her few remaining paths to
victory and unanimously concede that things are looking grim against the
seemingly unstoppable momentum of the charismatic Obama.

While I had not foreseen the extent of her February troubles, I still
believe that a reversal in fortunes is in the cards. (or is that stars?)
Aside from the birth chart, the campaign launch charts of candidates
can provide another source of information of the possible outcome of
their endeavours. Hillary's immediate concern is March 4th because if
she loses either one, her run will be over. And yet a quick look at the
respective campaign horoscopes of the two candidates shows that March
4th is very favourable to Hillary Clinton as tr.Venus will conjoin the
Venus-Moon conjunction in late Capricorn. The transiting Venus in
Barack Obama's campaign chart is also putatively good news in so far as
it conjoins the natal Sun. However, the complicating factor here is
that the Obama campaign chart features a tight Sun-Saturn opposition, so
that Venus is setting off that complex of energy. The results stirke me
as being more ambivalent and hence more indicative of a net loss for Obama.
Moreover, the transiting Mercury contacts the Sun-Saturn opposition
on March 8th, a date which we have isolated as being potentially damaging
to Obama by virtue of the Venus affliction in his natal chart.

As compelling as this race has been, I think it's about to get even more
interesting very soon.

Obama has the momentum but...

The momentum has clearly shifted towards Obama in the last couple of weeks. Some are already writing off Hillary Clinton's chances as the charismatic and younger Barack Obama has won 8 consecutive primaries and stands poised to win Wisconsin on Feb 19th. No astrology needed to predict that outcome! As I see it, however, the astrological picture is rapidly dimming on Obama. This week upcoming will represent the high point of his popularity, and look for the days around the 22nd to be especially good. After that, things will begin to slide. As mentioned previously, the March 4 Texas and Ohio primaries will probably go to Hillary and Obama's chart shows significant stress and unhappiness in the period of March 8-12. This configuration involves a major affliction of Venus and strongly suggests that his difficulties will stem from issues beyond simply bad vote results. This seems like it may be a stressful distraction involving women in some way, and with the influence of P4 Mars station on March 8th (!), we cannot rule out some kind of injury, coercion, threat or other expression of martian symbolism. It is very possible these configurations may be pointing to fallout from his ongoing financial relationship with corrupt Democrat operator Tony Rezko as Rezko's trial for fraud and extortion gets underway on March 3. I think the events of these first two weeks of March will change the whole complexion of the campaign.

Meanwhile, Hillary's campaign will get a huge boost from the P3 Venus station that occurs March 6th, just in time to give Hillary wins in Texas and Ohio. What gives these progressions stations extra strength is that she is running the Venus dasha. That kind of parallelism across astrological systems enhances the power of both and our confidence in predicting what will flow from this pattern. I am expecting that Obama will concede defeat in May or by mid-June at the latest when Saturn stations square to his Moon. It's worth noting that his wife, Michelle Obama, has her Venus at 7 Aq and she was also feel the full force of that Saturn station by opposition aspect. This is another sign that Obama will lose this historic political battle at that time.

Hillary wins New Mexico

A small ray of hope fell upon the Clinton campaign yesterday when it was
announced that Hillary had won the Feb 5 New Mexico primary after a
lengthy recount. While this only gives her two more delegates than
Obama for her victory, it was a much-needed bit of good news in her
beleaguered campaign.

Polls released yesterday also showed her leading Obama by a wide margin
in Ohio and Pennsylvania. While these are seen as pro-Clinton states,
there was some question whether Obama's momentum might be eroding her
base. These positive poll numbers show that she may be able to not only
win these states, but also pick up the delegates needed to close Obama's
lead. All in all, yesterday was a mostly good news day for Hillary --
although a prominent member of the Black caucus John Lewis did come out
in support of Obama.

This up day for Hillary seems to confirm what I had forecast back on Feb
10th that Hillary would lose the Potomac primaries but would have some
gain shortly thereafter. Here's what I wrote then:

"More problematic for Obama is the 13th and 14th when the Venus conjunct
comes exact to Saturn and Sun lines up with the Ketu. Mercury is coming
to station in a square against his natal Neptune. Due to the time lag,
I don't see this difficult pattern being related to primary results but
it will be a noteworthy problem. Hopefully, it will have a public
manifestation so we can check our progress. Will HRC benefit from
this? It's very likely. Sun Venus and Mars all sync up around 2 degree
of their respective signs and set off her Uranus. By itself, the tr
Mars station to the natal Uranus has not done her any favours, but the
presence of these other planets may bring her an unexpected benefit that
helps her campaign."

Potomac Primaries

Obama trounced HRC in all three contests last night by huge margins,
despite my prediction to the contrary. In retrospect, I did not take
into full account the negative effect of Tr Sun that opposed Hillary's
Saturn. It formed a t-square with her natal Mercury as well and with tr
Neptune there in the mix as well, she is at her weakest right now,
flailing helplessly, unable to stop Obama's momentum. Astrology 101
really -- I just missed seeing it in the chart, plain and simple. I
have to admit I am biased towards Mrs Clinton in the long term because I
am predicting her to win the contest eventually. Her more favourable
time really doesn't get going until March, however. On March 4, Texas
and Ohio will vote and likely go Clinton's way since Latinos and working
class voters tend to favour her. As it happens, the corruption trial of
a major Obama backer Tony Rezko begins the day before on March 3 so this
may be a source of embarrassment for him.

On Tuesday Feb 12, the so-called Potomac primaries take place in
Virginia, Maryland, and D.C. Like Washington, Nebraska, and Louisiana,
these are must-win states for Obama since the demographics favour him,
as these states have an over-representation of black and educated
voters. And with pro-Clinton states looming next in the nomination
calendar in early March, any losses here would put his campaign in
jeopardy. Expectations are that he will win all three although again
there is some room for interpretation depending on the margin of victory.

While the Sun will have past exact opposition to her Saturn by Tuesday,
it's still pretty close. And there is an absence of any offsetting
favourable influences. Meanwhile, Obama will have tr Venus approaching
his natal Saturn which can be a disappointing combination. However, it
will still be two degress short of conjunction, so there isn't enough of
an affliction to get us to think of huge losses on Tuesday. So Obama
should win these primaries, as advertised. His margin may be smaller
than Saturday's, but that's not saying much. He won Washington by 35
pts. I don't foresee much good news here for Clinton.

More problematic for Obama is the 13th and 14th when the Venus conjunct
comes exact to Saturn and Sun lines up with the Ketu. Mercury is coming
to station in a square against his natal Neptune. Due to the time lag,
I don't see this difficult pattern being related to primary results but
it will be a noteworthy problem. Hopefully, it will have a public
manifestation so we can check our progress. Will HRC benefit from
this? It's very likely. Sun Venus and Mars all sync up around 2 degree
of their respective signs and set off her Uranus. By itself, the tr
Mars station to the natal Uranus has not done her any favours, but the
presence of these other planets may bring her an unexpected benefit that
helps her campaign. Rather than anything good happening to her perhaps
she will merely reap the perceived media boost from Obama's troubles.
Politics is a zero sum game where your opponents' headaches are a source
of your own happiness.

Nonetheless, I don't think this event will be big enough to change the
basic dynamic of the campaign.

Obama setback in the cards?

A few more primaries, or rather caucuses today in Washington, Louisiana, Nebraska for the Dems (Kansas for the GOP) and the Virgin Islands. Maine is tomorrow.

Obama is expected to do well here because he usually does better in caucuses than in secret ballot primaries and because the demographics in Washington and Louisiana favour him. I think the consensus is that he is expected to win Washington and Louisiana handily (by at least 10 pts, maybe 20)and be competitive in Nebraska. Hillary is probably favoured to win Maine. But since these aren't winner-take-all contests, winning a state is more about bragging rights and momentum building than boosting one's delegrate count. It's only if the margin of victory is large that it impacts the race, which up to now is virtually tied.

Obama's chart doesn't look that good for today though. 12th lord Mercury opposes his Sun, and the Moon forms a t-square with with natal Mars and tr Mars. Worse still, tr Moon falls under the 3rd house sextile aspect of his natal Saturn this evening during the counting. Also tr Venus has left a Venus-ruled nakshatra and is now in a Sun-ruled one, Uttarashada. This is a less favourable influence I believe, because the tr Sun is currently in his 4th house with Neptune and as mentioned already, Sun is under the transit of the 12th lord of loss, Mercury.

With these patterns in mind, I would think there will be some disappointment in the Obama camp. It seems that the margins of victory may be fairly small (i.e. less than 10 pts) , and he is likely to lose Nebraska. Maine will certainly go to Hillary. It seems impossible that Obama could lose either Washington or Lousiana. Still, I don't see him getting a huge boost here from the results. After the euphoric rallies in Seattle yesterday attended by 17,000, a slim margin of victory would be seen as a momentum buster so maybe that's the more likely scenario than an out and out loss. But an Obama loss in Washington is possible.

By contrast, Mrs Clinton will probably see a nice boost as Moon moves deeper into Pisces later in the evening forming a trine with her natal Jupiter. Maybe Washington won't be as bad for her as the pundits think. Tr Mercury is past aspecting her natal Mars so it's likely done all the damage it can for now. Venus is in good shape near the equal 3rd house cusp.

It's hard to sure about these lesser elections since the planetary patterns may be reflecting not the results but some other elements going on behind the scences. This is especially true when the contests at hand are not critical and whose results may be well known beforehand through extensive polling.

We'll find out soon enough.

Obama

As Super Tuesday approaches and the US primary season reaches its
critical peak, a quick look at Barack Obama's chart suggests the end of
his time on the national stage may be near. While his charismatic
candidancy has struck a chord across the country, he still trails
Hillary Clinton in national polls, although the gap has narrowed to
single digits in the past week.

The chart looks decidedly mixed for Tuesday with some great placements
like tr Venus on his 3rd house cusp (successful efforts, happy
communications)

. But tr Mercury is with Neptune near his IC (unequal
4th cusp) and since Mercury contains some maleficence through its 12th
house lordship, there may be a sense of unease in the coming days. His
P3 chart shows a t-square with progressed Moon-Mercury- Neptune which
also reinforces the notion that things are not quite working out as
planned on Feb 5.

He is currently in the dasha sequence of Jupiter-Venus-Mercury. Venus
is well placed in the 9th disposited by Mercury in the 10th but Venus
contains the potential for problems through the aspect from Ketu.
Mercury is fairly well esconced in the 10th but the helpful aspect from
Jupiter is somewhat compromised by Saturn's aspect. Generally this is a
good combination but it could go against him if the transits turn bad.

My sense is Tuesday will go well enough for him but nothing extreme
either way. He's both unlikely to take the lead in delegates or the
polls and neither will his campaign fizzle. At the end of it, there may
still be sense that he faces an uphill battle to win the nomination
perhaps because he hasn't done as well as he had hoped.

A potential turning point in his campaign may be the period of March
9-12 when transiting Mercury and Venus conjoin his natal Ketu. This
occurs at the same time that transiting Mars conjoins his Venus while
Pluto moves to within one degree of opposition. Also note there is a P4
Mars station exact on March 8 that occurs in a 4 degree square with his
natal Venus. This looks very unfavourable to him and possibly his wife
as well given the Venus symbolism that suggests some kind of major
misfortune. It looks as if there will some kind of aggressive action
(Mars) or powerplay (Pluto) against him that distorts and prevents
(Ketu) his success (Venus/Mercury). These short term transits take
place against a negative backdrop of transiting Saturn backing into a
malefic 10th house square aspect to his natal Moon. It comes near exact
in May so that would be the most likely time for him to drop out of the
campaign.