By most accounts, Hillary Clinton came out of last night's Pennsylvania debate looking better than Barack Obama, who was put on the defensive for much of the evening. This largely confirms my April 2 forecast that Hillary would perform well in the debate while Obama would have problems:
"The April 16th debate looks very good for Hillary. Venus is conjunct her natal part of fortune on that day which usually indicates situations that work in one's favour. Also transiting Sun and Mercury will be aspected by his natal Rahu. This usually signals an awkward and unfavourable situation. He may come off as overly combative or perhaps just a little out of control here and his arguments will not be effective."
While Obama was never "out of control", several journalists have noted how weak some of explanations were for his recent gaffes and miscues.
The PA primary is next on the 22nd and Hillary is poised to win. The question is: by how much? I think she still has a shot at the crucial 10 point margin of victory, although I wonder if some of the strength in Obama's campaign chart might be a signal that the margin is narrower (less than 10%), and hence the victory might only be symbolic, as HRC would only cut into Obama's delegate lead marginally. While this weaker sort of victory is possible, I think a more convincing double-digit win is the most likely scenario. I don't foresee any significant negative news for Hillary in the days leading up to the primary that would reduce her current lead, which has been measured at about 5 points.
After the primary, Hillary may suffer some kind of setback around Apr 28 when tr Mercury conjoins her natal Rahu and comes under the aspect of Saturn. This looks embarrassing but I don't think this will do any lasting damage but it will only be in the news cycle for a couple of days. It may involve leaders or authority figures (esp foreign or hidden ones) whose words jeopardize her integrity and threaten her position. Obama will have to deal with a problem of his own around May 2nd, so that is likely to shift attention away from Hillary's difficulties. This May 2nd situation looks like it may rekindle more realistic hopes that the nomination is actually winnable. That seems improbable now, but it's a date worth watching.
32 comments:
The setback after the primary might have something to do with superdelegates, Chris.
I understand that Howard Dean is now asking superdelegates to say who they support - right away, so the party can settle on its nominee.
Perhaps if Hillary's win is big but isn't huge enough to cause upset, Dean will continue and intensify his demands.
I'm glad to see that 2 May might bring new cause for relief!
Thanks for your continuing astro-commentary. I'm starting to realise that those who say that Vedic is better for prediction are right!
I actually posted this as a response to the other post.
It's pretty chaotic right now (meaning the front-runner, who is an African American with all of the radical left-wing, anti-clinton party, and AA support is damaged goods). I watched the debate, which was a clear win for Hillary, but she's not the front runner. Look at what Obama said below (this was at the debate, in front of millions of people):
George Stephanopoulos, said to Obama, "A gentleman named William Ayers, part of the Weather Underground in the 1970s, they bombed the Pentagon, the Capitol, and other buildings. He's never apologized for it, and in fact on 9/11 he was quoted in the New York Times saying, 'I don't regret setting bombs. I feel we didn't do enough.' An early organizing meeting for your state Senate campaign was held at his house, and your campaign has said you are friendly. Can you explain the relationship for the voters and explain to Democrats why it won't be a problem to be so close to a terrorist like this."
OBAMA (comparing his relationship to a terrorist with his relationship with a conservative Republican): "This is guy who lives in my neighborhood who was, uh, a professor of English in Chicago who I know and who I have not received some official endorsement from, he's not somebody who I exchange ideas from on a regular basis, uh, and the notion that somehow, uh, as a consequence of me knowing somebody who engaged in detestable acts 40 years ago when I was eight years old, uh, somehow reflects on me and my values doesn't make much sense, George. The fact is that I'm also friendly with Tom Coburn, one of the most conservative Republicans in the United States Senate, uh, who, during his campaign, once said that it, uh, might be appropriate to apply the death penalty to those who, uh, carried out abortions. Do I need to apologize for Mr. Coburn's, uh, statements? Because I certainly don't agree with those, either."
Right now, Obama is damaged goods, if he wins and represents the democratic party, democrats are sure to lose against John McCain. But, if Hillary can close the deal in PA by scoring a double-digit win then I think further doubts will be raised and the superdelegates might shift support to Hillary.
As far as 3 SD's coming out endorsing Obama after the debate - I think this was an orchestrated move to show that he still has support within the party after he performed badly in the debate. But, that doesn't translate into a win for him in PA either.
Hi Chris,
I've been following your predictions about this campaign. You mentioned before that you see Obama dropping out of the campaign. Do you still see it happening? thanks a lot for the things that you do. You give us all (HRC supporter) something to look forward to. I'd rather vote for McCain if Obama wins the nomination.
There's some more favourable things for HRC. Apparently the latest Gallup poll has her in a statistical tie with Obama (less than 3 pt lead) for the first time in two months after she had trailed him.
Also, David Brooks of the NYT may be the thin edge of the wedge on "How Obama Fell to Earth".
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/18/opinion/18brooks.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
I don't think he's mortally wounded at this point. There are just more questions about him out there, as there would inevitably would be as part of the vetting process.
HRC is still in a longshot situation. This may change in May if my analysis is correct.
I don't see BHO dropping out in May -- I think that prediction will be proven wrong, or at least premature. I think July-August is the most likely time this thing will be settled.
While I totally agree with Obama on pointlessness of the the media driven 'gotcha' politics and the silly flag pin flap, the question is how he comes across when he is talking about it. There may be a slight sense of sour grapes about it since it has hurt him in some quarters. But most of the potential voters who care about that are Hillary or McCain supporters so it doesn't damage him much now. It may weaken him in November which is something the SD have to consider.
Hey Guys,
Take a look at Obama's response to Hillary's debate offensive, it's making some headlines:
Innocent Scratch?
Thanks!
Hi Chris
Please see the link below on some comments made by Hillary
I am not sure how this would impact Hillary (If Any)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/celeste-fremon/clinton-slams-democratic_b_97484.html
I think I'll wait until "the finger" shows up on the NYT site. Fox and CNN don't quite make it for me.
Here's an alternative take on the debate and how it may not have been as "embarrassing" for ABC as many in the pro-Obama media would like to believe. Article is entitled -- "Obama's secret weapon: the media." It's lead story now in case the link gets cut off.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9718.html
Rajendra,
I don't think this has much of an impact on Hillary. There are some 3 million people making up the left-wing party base. They parted ways long ago with Hillary - back in Feb, when it became clear she would not drop out. Plus MoveOn has been raising a lot of money for Obama. I don't think this does anything but harden Obama's supporters. The Democratic party is in a quagmire. The frontrunner is a candidate favored by the left-wing, young individuals and African Americans (men have been pretty much split between the two), within the party. The regular blue-collar folks, democratic realists, working-class voters, baby boomers and women mostly favor Hillary. So the party coalition remains split between this two.
A very good article to read:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/why_not_blame_obama.html
This a great article for those who have been hoping the people of this country will start cough up the Obama poison apple the media has been feeding us.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lanny-davis/latest-gallup-national-de_b_97665.html
Getty1206,
At this point, about half the democrats feel as you do. The April 19th Gallup poll has them tied among democrats. Moderates are flocking to Hillary. They know the reality and realize her strengths and weaknesses and believe she would be the better president in times of economic and foriegn policy crisis. It's rare to find someone who shines in adversity and I believe that's what Hillary is! The other half of the democratic party, however, are aligning with the left and activist base, which is strongly behind Obama (which initially happened because of Hillary's vote to authorize force in Iraq). The activists are supporting him despite his potential unappeal to the larger electorate, because they are banking on the premise that people will vote for a democrat no matter who it is, because they're dissatisfied with Bush economic policies. I don't think that's a very strong case, otherwise, Kerry would've won in 2004. And, then, there's the Ralph Nader factor to consider.
I don't quite see this thing as evenly divided yet but this race is dividing the party along its fundamental left-centre cleavage. When you step back, it makes sense that a more left activist candidate like Obama would follow a very incompetent right wing Bush administration. That's really the only time in history when new approaches and left wing politics have had a chance of winning. FDR after the GOP and the Depression, or JFK after the stable but stultifying Eisenhower years.
I think the most important number for her now are national polls. She's been behind since February but there are signs she's coming back. As long as she's behind Obama (and McCain) there's no truly compelling reason for SDs to vote for her.
May does look better for her astrologically, so that is one thing I will be looking for aside from endorsements, delegate counts and primary results.
Chris,
I partially agree with you. There's also another element to consider and that's the ongoing war in Iraq, the US standing among the world and the overall national security issue.
I don't know that in the past, a left-leaning democrat has won during times of war. It's usually been that Republicans have won in the past during times of war or national crisis.
If it was just the economic issue, I could see Obama has a chance, but I think McCain beats him in every aspect, on the foreign policy and national security front - as it stands right now anyway. I think of the two, Hillary has a better chance at beating McCain on those two issues.
Hopefully, a good win for Hill tomorrow will propel her to better times in May as you have predicted.
Thanks!
Hi guys,
I don't know if you saw that Michael Moore went out and endorsed Obama today. (BTW, I also remember being equally annoyed when he threw his support behind Ralph Nader in 2000...He's partially the reason why we've had Bush all these years.)
Anyway, Chris thanks for your analysis, and everyone else for your thoughtful posts! (For you Hillary supporters, there's movement, please light a candle for her today around 7:45 EST)..
Thanks!
lalita,
any particular color candle?
lalita,
Also, what time zone at 7:45? I am passing this info on to other Hillary supporters I know and they want to know 7:45 according to what time zone?
Getty1206,
7:45 Eastern time zone.
Thanks!
Here's a pro-Hillary blogger\radio show host @: www.taylormarsh.com, for those who are interested.
Hi all!
I've lit my candle - a bit late, but I've just read these posts.
Go Hillary! Double digits!
Regarding Obama being more left-wing than Hillary - I don't see it that way at all. His association with Anti-American characters may give the impression that he's a rebel, and will change the system in one fell swoop, may be exciting, but it's fantasy.
His policies are not much different from HRC's.
He's selling fantasy, and I cannot understand why more people don't realise it.
HRC's feet are firmly on planet Earth. What we see and hear is what we'll get from her.
Dear HillFans:
I invite you to light a virtual candle at
www.gratefulness.org. Please light it in the hrc group of candles. We have over 1,600 candles lighting the way to truth!
Hillary WILL rout Obama today, soundly and firmly. So it is! Namaste!
Hi Chris
Hillary won today and not by a bad margin...so I think she still has a shot...she is not out yet ...there's still hope...
Yes, she was able to cut into his popular vote lead by about a 1/3, but not his delegate lead. May be that's what Chris was alluding to regarding Obama's strength in his chart. He seems to currently have a convincing lead in delegates, even after tonight, she will have closed the gap by 15 delegates or so, and he'd still be ahead by 150 toward the 2025 needed to clinch the nomination.
Well, that grand trine paid off as Hillary won tonight, by about 9.4% -- not quite 10 pts, but a good win nonetheless. She's brought in $1 million in two hours which is a sure sign that her campaign is very much alive.
I don't think delegate counts will mean that much in the final analysis. Smart Democrats have to look at what sorts of states the two candidates are winning and are capable of winning in November. Hillary wins the big states, traditionally Dem states, while Obama did disproportionately well in states that the Dems can't win like SC, NC. The Democratic roadmap to the White House is simplified by the logic of the electoral college numbers. Hillary won Florida and has a better shot at it vs McCain than BO does. The same is true for MI, OH, PA, MA, NJ, NY and CA. Its the Democratic primary system that is the problem here -- its raw count of delegates doesn't reflect the relative importance of the states in a general election. Which is a good reason for SD to put the party's best interest ahead of the party members.
I think her campaign will start to make this case more explicit in the coming days. I'll post something on her prospects for IN and NC soon. Still wondering about that possible setback next week though.
Thanks, Chris!!! You hit it on the nose AGAIN. Anxious for more from you.
I'm getting the feeling now that they're running for President and Vice President, especially after listening to both speeches last night.
Do you see any indication of that Chris?
Sometimes it seems unlikely - then at other times, it looks like the only way forward.
here article is as right on as Chris has been with his predictions..enjoy!
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OGFjOTljMjYzZTNkNzcxYTczMTZlMGIzNjI3ZmNiMzA=
Chris,
BHO will be on Chris Wallace Fox News Sunday. Any predictions? Also, you mentioned that these things will be settled most likely in July/August time frame, does it mean that you're predicting a good May 6th primary for HRC?
Thanks a lot, Chris!!!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/24/media-jump-ship-from-obam_n_98545.html
Is media jumping ship?
Is the tide really turning?
(Cross fingers!)
Hello Chris,
Below is an excerpt from your 04/17/08 post. Please refer to the post that I copied today from NBC after yours. Interesting.
After the primary, Hillary may suffer some kind of setback around Apr 28 when tr Mercury conjoins her natal Rahu and comes under the aspect of Saturn. This looks embarrassing but I don't think this will do any lasting damage but it will only be in the news cycle for a couple of days. It may involve leaders or authority figures (esp foreign or hidden ones) whose words jeopardize her integrity and threaten her position. Obama will have to deal with a problem of his own around May 2nd, so that is likely to shift attention away from Hillary's difficulties. This May 2nd situation looks like it may rekindle more realistic hopes that the nomination is actually winnable. That seems improbable now, but it's a date worth watching.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
One of the things that both Dem campaigns are always nervous about is defectors. In particular, Clinton is more vulnerable to this problem since she's the candidate that is trailing. Well, NBC News has learned that a major fundraiser for Hillary Clinton, former Amb. to Chile Gabriel Guerra-Mondragon is leaving the campaign to join up Barack Obama's campaign. Officially dubbed a "Hillraiser," Guerra-Mondragon raised nearly $500,000 for Clinton's campaign, according to some estimates. He has been informing people inside Clintonworld this week in what's been described as some tough conversations. A formal announcement of a role for Guerra-Mondragon on Obama's national finance committee will be made next week. Guerra-Mondragon was appointed Amb. to Chile by Pres. Clinton in '94 and served until '98.
Among the reasons for Guerra-Mondragon to defect, according to one informed source, was he was uneasy with the tone of the Clinton campaign and was beginning to worry about what this would mean for the general election.
It's unclear if this defection will lead to others; the Clinton camp
has been particularly effective at getting folks to keep their powder dry. For Obama, this comes at a time when his campaign is trying to re-convince insiders that the math indicates he has the nomination virtually wrapped up. In addition, Guerra-Mondragon's defection could serve as a tipping point with some key Hispanic Democratic leaders that Obama is ready to start making a bigger effort to court Hispanics
Jackarooty - Nice observation. Hope this is what the stars were predicting and nothing more.
Thanks Jackarooty. That's an intriguing story about the Chilean fundraiser. Let's see if it gets picked up by other media. It sounds potentially serious for HRC.
OTOH, there are signs that the media is now asking questions about Obama's electability in Nov, as Clinton has indicated.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/
04/24/media-jump-ship-from-obam_n_98545.html
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