Democrats 24-7: from Pennsylvania to Indiana

Hillary Clinton managed to keep her nomination hopes alive after yet another back-to-the-wall primary victory, this time in Pennsylvania. The margin was a little short of the psychologically important 10%, but it has still managed to achieve the desired aim of forcing the media and party insiders to begin to question Barack Obama's ability to win the centrist Reagan Democrats. I had thought that a big win like this was possible on the basis of the grand trine in Hillary's chart, while Obama was suffering from the various afflictions in his natal and campaign charts. All in all, I'm satisfied that the essence of my forecast has largely come to pass.

The next primaries are set for May 6th in North Carolina and Indiana. With its large population of African American and university graduates, there is no doubt that Obama will win NC handily. The real focus is then on Indiana which arguably represents a more typical cross-section of voters where Hillary can press her case that she is the better candidate to win key swing states in the November election. Polls thus far show they are in a statistical tie.

This one is a tough call as there are good and bad indications for both candidates. At this point, I'm less certain about the outcome than I was for Texas and Ohio. One thing seems likely -- DNC Chair Howard Dean will not be happy with the outcome as the tr Moon-Mercury in the 12th house form a square to his 3rd house natal Saturn. This may be due to either 1) a Hillary win in Indiana which further intensifies the division in the party and draws out this internecine battle or 2) an Obama win that is disputed by the Hillary side on procedural or technical questions. The likelihood of bad blood is perhaps also in evidence in the chart of the Democratic Party where the tr Mars in the 6th from the Moon forms a t-square with the natal Saturn-Neptune opposition. This may simply represent a lot of disappointed Hillary supporters at a loss in a crucial primary, but I believe it signals something more problematic for the party. A more prosaic explanation would be that Hillary might lose but refuse to drop out of the race arguing that Indiana is not a must-win Democratic state, as say Pennsylvania or Ohio are. This would mean the nomination race would continue and Howard Dean would still be stuck in the middle of it all.

I had predicted that Obama would run into some headaches in the days leading up to the primary, say on May 2. While these may be temporarily damaging to him, there are good signs on election day for him such as tr Venus conjoining the ascendant of the campaign chart. While it is no guarantee of happiness and achievement especially given Venus' natal conjunction with Rahu which can sometimes destabilize Venus transits, it is still a generally favourable factor that seems to point to an Indiana victory.

Nonetheless, Hillary Clinton does have some positive influences on May 6th. Transiting Sun, as 11th lord of gains, will oppose her 1st lord Venus, for example. The combination of these two houses is often a sign of a reward or improvement. The difficulty here is that there isn't much else besides that as a signal for a win where one might expect here to be. So it's seems a little thin in the plus column and may only indicate some kind of silver lining to the day's events. Chelsea Clinton's chart also doesn't appear particularly strong on that date (e.g. tr Mars aspects her natal Ketu), so that is another potential sign that a win for Clinton may not happen in Indiana. While I'm less certain of this primary prediction than any other so far, my best guess then is that Obama will narrowly win Indiana and Hillary will somehow find a way to carry on.

One interesting side note is that when the winner is decided in the evening of May 6th, the Moon will conjoin Aldebaran in the middle of Taurus. This is a fixed star that is associated with royalty and popularity, and is associated with political power. On the surface that might represent the front runner Obama winning the day, as there may be a sense of crowning in the air. However, as fixed star expert Vivian Robson has written, "[Aldebaran's] benefits seldom prove lasting and there is also danger of violence and sickness." I'm not suggesting one has to take this literally as the violence may only be symbolic, such as Hillary Clinton calling the DNC on ongoing legality issues concerning the vote in MI and FL. Again, I don't want to make too much of this coincidence of the Moon's position on May 6th, but I thought it was worth a mention.

Regardless of what happens in IN and NC, I am still predicting that Hillary will win the nomination. I would currently put my confidence level at 70%, indicating that this is the most likely outcome although not quite in the 'sure thing' category. For comparison's sake, current sentiment on Intrade.com puts her chances at about 17%.