Hillary's April showers and The Democratic Convention

The HRC campaign continues its run of bad luck and bad karma with the release yesterday of the Clinton's tax information showing they had made $109 million since Bill left the White House. This on the same day that Hillary announces that she would establish an anti-poverty czar if elected. [cut to Jon Stewart's deer in the headlights look here]. This was likely the result of transiting Mars square aspect to her natal Neptune in the 12th house which often creates embarrassments or distortions. I think she may have something go her way this weekend (esp on Sunday) as tr. Venus picks up her natal Jupiter's aspect. But Monday and Tuesday look like more conflict and backpedaling for her as that Venus moves into range of the square from natal Mars in her campaign chart.

This campaign is in trouble right now and she runs the risk of the nightmare scenario of losing Pennsylvania on Apr 22. While I still think it's winnable for her, I have previously acknowledged there is a configuration in the Obama campaign chart. that may indicate that he wins on the 22nd. This is the transiting Mars hitting his unequal 4th house cusp while tr Jupiter moves over his unequal 10th house cusp. Mars (action, conflict) and Jupiter (politicians, ideals) oppose each other then, so its an appropriate pattern for this battle royal. It's a very singular and powerful pattern in Obama's chart which could coincide with a win. Hillary's chart still shows strength on the 22nd however the presence of transiting dasha lord Venus on the equal 6th house cusp is cause for some concern. This generically means "conflict" which is appropriate for an election contest, but there is a sense of difficulty here too, as if it may be too much for her to handle. Bottom line, I still expect her to win here, but my confidence level is not what it was for TX and OH. I was more like 80% or more certain she would win there as the astrology of those wins looked far more clear cut. My sense of Pennsylvania is more like 60%.

The reason I'm revisiting this prediction is because I'm trying to make sense of the her declining fortunes in light of the charts.. I've got some things right so far like her winning Texas and Ohio, but I've been wrong too. I have to admit that I could be wrong about Pennsylvania as well, and indeed about her nomination. This election has been unusually challenging for astrologers because of lack of documented birth times for either candidate. This means that birth time-dependent placements like houses and rulerships have to be used with a grain a salt and this increases one's margin of error. And just to state the obvious, no astrologer, especially me, is going to be correct all the time. It's a probabilistic endeavour at best, where one can sometimes see things in the future that fall outside of normal perception. This is rarely a consistent ability of prediction in the conventional scientific sense of the word. And when you throw in personal preferences into the mix (yes, I like Hillary), staying objective is hard to do.

Somehow, Hillary needs to find a way to survive in April while her chart is under pressure. Her subperiod lord Saturn is retrograde in the 11th house of gains making progress slow if not impossible. When this changes direction and goes forward on May 2, her luck should improve. Until then, she is going to have a tough time, which may include losing Pennsylvania. I still think she has enough strength in her chart to win it, but I want to be up front about some second thoughts I'm having. The astrology is by no means clear. But if she does end up losing it, then the campaign is effectively over.

And even if she survives into May, Saturn will then aspect her natal Sun by 3rd house sextile aspect. This places a handicap on her husband (males are represented by the Sun) and her vitality which is also symbolized by the Sun. Therefore, she may be more prone to weakness and illness through May and June. More significantly, the Sun also represents authority so this may be the time when she tangles with the DNC in a more open way. Overall, it's a difficult transit and not necessarily one that will boost her chances. My original prediction for Obama's hard times in May was based on the assumption that the race would end then. Since this won't happen, those negative influences in his chart will likely show setbacks and more intense conflicts that he will have with Hillary and perhaps the party as a whole. A possible indicator of his declining fortunes, however temporary, may be seen in the retrograde station of his dasha lord Jupiter on May 9. Also Uranus is applying to station in a close opposition to his natal Mars (29 Leo) in June suggesting too much energy or conflict that is out of control. I note that June 24 is particularly over-energized for Obama as Uranus stations that day and transiting Mars conjoins his natal Uranus. This signature of action, aggression and suddenness is not going to be helpful to Obama at all, and may extend beyond the realm of political conflict and into some kind of personal threat.

So while I am hedging a bit here in the face of a bleak reality, I still would favour Hillary winning in PA and then winning the nomination although I'm less confident about it than I was before. Another interesting dimension is how a potential fight with the DNC might play out. If Hillary wins PA as I think she might, the prospect of a legal challenge to seat the delegates from MI and FL grows. I think there is good reason to think there will be a very nasty fight in the party possibly right up to the convention as the chart of the Democratic Party (May 13 1792) is very afflicted. For example, the natal Mars (27 Leo) will be opposed by Uranus in the coming months suggesting a time of chaos and uncontrollable developments. The Democratic Party has roughly the same placement of Mars as Obama has hence the Uranus opposition shows up in both charts. A possible clue to what the convention might hold can be seen in the conjunction of transiting Mars to the natal Rahu. This strongly indicates an explosion of anger and actions that fall outside the boundaries of normal behaviour. At the same time, transiting Ketu conjoins the natal Uranus, which again indicates excitement that gets out of control, or perhaps sudden changes or developments.

DNC chair Howard Dean's chart (Nov 17 1948) shows too much activity to suggest smooth sailing all the way to the convention. July and August look particularly stressed. He's running Saturn-Rahu dasha at a time when transiting Saturn conjoins its natal position -- a Saturn return. What's worse, on July 11, tr. Mars and Saturn conjoin on his natal Saturn. This does not sound like a tea party, particularly as the tr Saturn will aspect his natal Ketu simultaneously. This looks like a time when rules are being cast aside and matters are in disarray. To top it off, at the time of the convention in late August, tr Saturn will exactly square Dean's natal 12th house Moon, indicating a time of loss and disappointment. This may reflect a disappointment that his preferred choice has lost, or it may indicate disappointment that has damaged its image. It's not all bad, however, as tr Jupiter is close to his 7th house cusp symbolizing successful encounters with colleagues. So it's possible that the party comes out of the convention intact. I'll post more on this topic later.