Obama setback in the cards?

A few more primaries, or rather caucuses today in Washington, Louisiana, Nebraska for the Dems (Kansas for the GOP) and the Virgin Islands. Maine is tomorrow.

Obama is expected to do well here because he usually does better in caucuses than in secret ballot primaries and because the demographics in Washington and Louisiana favour him. I think the consensus is that he is expected to win Washington and Louisiana handily (by at least 10 pts, maybe 20)and be competitive in Nebraska. Hillary is probably favoured to win Maine. But since these aren't winner-take-all contests, winning a state is more about bragging rights and momentum building than boosting one's delegrate count. It's only if the margin of victory is large that it impacts the race, which up to now is virtually tied.

Obama's chart doesn't look that good for today though. 12th lord Mercury opposes his Sun, and the Moon forms a t-square with with natal Mars and tr Mars. Worse still, tr Moon falls under the 3rd house sextile aspect of his natal Saturn this evening during the counting. Also tr Venus has left a Venus-ruled nakshatra and is now in a Sun-ruled one, Uttarashada. This is a less favourable influence I believe, because the tr Sun is currently in his 4th house with Neptune and as mentioned already, Sun is under the transit of the 12th lord of loss, Mercury.

With these patterns in mind, I would think there will be some disappointment in the Obama camp. It seems that the margins of victory may be fairly small (i.e. less than 10 pts) , and he is likely to lose Nebraska. Maine will certainly go to Hillary. It seems impossible that Obama could lose either Washington or Lousiana. Still, I don't see him getting a huge boost here from the results. After the euphoric rallies in Seattle yesterday attended by 17,000, a slim margin of victory would be seen as a momentum buster so maybe that's the more likely scenario than an out and out loss. But an Obama loss in Washington is possible.

By contrast, Mrs Clinton will probably see a nice boost as Moon moves deeper into Pisces later in the evening forming a trine with her natal Jupiter. Maybe Washington won't be as bad for her as the pundits think. Tr Mercury is past aspecting her natal Mars so it's likely done all the damage it can for now. Venus is in good shape near the equal 3rd house cusp.

It's hard to sure about these lesser elections since the planetary patterns may be reflecting not the results but some other elements going on behind the scences. This is especially true when the contests at hand are not critical and whose results may be well known beforehand through extensive polling.

We'll find out soon enough.

Obama

As Super Tuesday approaches and the US primary season reaches its
critical peak, a quick look at Barack Obama's chart suggests the end of
his time on the national stage may be near. While his charismatic
candidancy has struck a chord across the country, he still trails
Hillary Clinton in national polls, although the gap has narrowed to
single digits in the past week.

The chart looks decidedly mixed for Tuesday with some great placements
like tr Venus on his 3rd house cusp (successful efforts, happy
communications)

. But tr Mercury is with Neptune near his IC (unequal
4th cusp) and since Mercury contains some maleficence through its 12th
house lordship, there may be a sense of unease in the coming days. His
P3 chart shows a t-square with progressed Moon-Mercury- Neptune which
also reinforces the notion that things are not quite working out as
planned on Feb 5.

He is currently in the dasha sequence of Jupiter-Venus-Mercury. Venus
is well placed in the 9th disposited by Mercury in the 10th but Venus
contains the potential for problems through the aspect from Ketu.
Mercury is fairly well esconced in the 10th but the helpful aspect from
Jupiter is somewhat compromised by Saturn's aspect. Generally this is a
good combination but it could go against him if the transits turn bad.

My sense is Tuesday will go well enough for him but nothing extreme
either way. He's both unlikely to take the lead in delegates or the
polls and neither will his campaign fizzle. At the end of it, there may
still be sense that he faces an uphill battle to win the nomination
perhaps because he hasn't done as well as he had hoped.

A potential turning point in his campaign may be the period of March
9-12 when transiting Mercury and Venus conjoin his natal Ketu. This
occurs at the same time that transiting Mars conjoins his Venus while
Pluto moves to within one degree of opposition. Also note there is a P4
Mars station exact on March 8 that occurs in a 4 degree square with his
natal Venus. This looks very unfavourable to him and possibly his wife
as well given the Venus symbolism that suggests some kind of major
misfortune. It looks as if there will some kind of aggressive action
(Mars) or powerplay (Pluto) against him that distorts and prevents
(Ketu) his success (Venus/Mercury). These short term transits take
place against a negative backdrop of transiting Saturn backing into a
malefic 10th house square aspect to his natal Moon. It comes near exact
in May so that would be the most likely time for him to drop out of the
campaign.

Gold reaches 30-year high

As predicted, gold has eclipsed the $725 high set in May 2006 and now sits at $740 USD per ounce. Much of the run-up can be attributed to the decline in the US dollar as well as investors seeking safe haven amidst the uncertainty of the sub-prime credit crunch.

Last year, I predicted that gold would push past the $725 mark sometime in the late summer of 2007. Although I thought August would be the most likely time, one month late isn't too bad as far as getting time windows right. The fundamental chart factors still obtain, as Jupiter is now moving forward just past the MC/Rahu/Neptune conjunction, while Uranus applies to natal Jupiter. These are both strongly bullish influences.

I believe gold is likely going to continue higher until November when Uranus stations and Jupiter moves deeper into the 11th house away. $800 is not unreasonable as a target. There will likely be a retracement as we get into December and January, perhaps back to under $700, although that price is very much a guess. The nodes will cross the ascendant at this time, so look for price volatility mostly on the down side. Towards late January, I think the bull run will resume as Jupiter applies to the Sun-Mercury-Venus in Sagittarius. This looks very positive for gold. In May, Jupiter will station just a degree short of natal Venus, so that might be the window for another price top. I can't say if it will exceed the highs set this Fall, but it looks to be a substantial price rise.

Japanese Stocks

I've been looking at stock index launch dates lately (NYSE Comp, etc) and thought I'd take a look at Japan's broadly-based Topix index. It's basically the equivalent of the S&P 500, whereas the Nikkei 225 is akin to the Dow 30.

The Topix was lauched July 1 1969 at 9 am. in Tokyo. There are some excellent fits between planetary motion and this natal chart for recent big reversals. For example, the May 2006 peak and subsequent fall coincided perfectly with Rahu/NN's trine aspect to natal Mars. Rahu was transiting the 8th house. For all you westerners, the nodes are more often malefic, especially when their dispositors are bruised. (Rahu in Pisces in both transit and natally, and Jupiter was conjoined by Ketu) Tr Ketu/SN was conjunct natal Uranus and then Jupiter through the following summer -- more problems there and not surprisingly the index fell. Things went back up only once Ketu had passed the natal Jupiter and transiting Jupiter had stationed exactly trine the natal Sun. Wow -- you really like to see those kind of no-brainer type aspects.

Accounting for the preceeding run-up from May 2005 is a little trickier but there are still threads to pursue. Moon bhukti came into force in May 2005 (gee, what a coincidence!). Natally, Moon is in Capricorn closely trined by Jupiter. Another no-brainer there I think. So the results of the Moon subperiod would tend to be positive as long as there were no substantial transit afflictions. Tr Uranus was also trining the natal Sun, the chart ruler of the sidereal chart in the 11th house of gains. Another favourable indicator there.

The forecast for this chart? With Mars bhukti running until the end of the year, it's hard to be bullish. Mars is with Neptune near the IC and thankfully gets a wide aspect from Venus to keep the whole thing from sinking. A more troublesome configuration emerges in the Fall when Saturn and Ketu/SN converge on the Ascendant. I'd sell into any rallies here and think about getting back in once Jupiter's dasha begins in early 2008.

Stock Market Decline

Stock markets around the world took a sudden nosedive yesterday. The future is uncertain as far as stocks go. Since there is no single agreed upon chart for the NYSE, I thought of looking at some more recent and therefore more reliable data to see if the selloff could be seen. I believe they can.

The NYSE Composite Index (May 6 1982 10.00 NYC) is also under stress by Saturn and the nodes. This is one of the worst possible afflictions.

1) Tr Saturn squaring (by most malefic 10th house aspect) Sun within 4 degrees and applying.
2) Tr Ketu/SN trine Sun within 6 minutes.
3) Tr Rahu/NN trine Rahu/NN within 40 minutes and applying
4) Tr Jupiter is within 2 degrees of the equal 6th house cusp. This is a malefic placement and what's worse Jupiter is destined to station there in a month.
5) Tr Mars squares Moon within 2 degrees and separating.

This is also fairly compelling although I would rather see some tighter afflictions. Still the Ketu to the Sun is the backbreaker IMO, especially since it is under pressure from Saturn already.

The Nasdaq chart (Feb 8 1971 10.00 am NYC) also seems to work nicely and therefore can be seen as a proxy for the market as a whole.

1) Tr Saturn opp Sun within one degree and applying. (Tr Neptune is therefore also within a one degree conj with the natal Sun)
2) Tr Mars conj Mercury within minutes.
3) Tr Sun square Mars within two degrees and applying.
4) Tr Ketu/SN trine Saturn within 30 minutes and separating. (Nodal hits are most often negative esp when another malefic is involved and this includes the trine aspect.)

I'm sticking with transits here to keep it simple. Clearly, you have some damaging long term transits at work along with some short term trigger transits as well. All in all, another compelling picture.

Both of these charts suggest difficulties for stocks in the coming weeks.

Let's hope gold manages to walk between the raindrops of these bearish configurations.

Chris

Gold passes $680

Things are looking up for gold these days as gold rose $23 to $686 before sliding back a bit. So the good news is my prediction from last year is gradually being realized. It is a very slow process -- slower than I had thought truth be told. By this time, I thought that gold would be matching last year's highs of $725. This will come soon enough, but a little patience may be needed.

From the chart, we see that transit Uranus has delivered on its part of the deal and has now moved past Jupiter. Rahu is station a few degrees off the Jupiter so that will provide part of the fuel the price requires to make new highs. Also transit Jupiter will station near the 11th equal house cusp in April and that is likely to coincide with higher prices.

Iran on the verge

The noises from the Bush administration about Iran are growing louder these days. There are claims that Iran is aiding the Shia insurgents in Iraq making a bad situation worse.

There are clear astrological signs that Iran's role in the conflict is on the verge of intensifying. Mercury will station opposite Saturn on February 13th so look for some bad news for Iran then. This might be an internatioal rebuke, or having its agents or mercenaries being discovered in Iran.

If we look at the Iran proclamation chart (Apr 1 1979 3 pm), we can see that Tr Saturn is applying to station on April 19th within one degree of the ascendant. Natally, Saturn is 8th lord and is involved in a T-square with Moon and Venus so the Saturn transit here packs considerable punch. Also the tertiary progressed chart looks very violence as P3 Asc conjoins P3 Mars and P3 Rahu all squaring P3 Uranus. This points to a sudden explosion of violence.

The midnight chart representing the legal beginning of the Islamic Republic is similarly troubled, albeit without the added force of the progressed angles. However, the transit situation is, if anything, worse in this chart. It is running Rahu-Mercury dasha. Mercury is closely conjunct Mars, the 6th lord representing conflict and the military. Pluto is applying to a near exact square to Mercury at its station on March 31st.

The next two or three months seem the most volatile and will probably coincide with a more explicit Iranian involvement with the war in Iraq. A US attack on Iran is one possible scenario.

Key dates to watch are the time around March 8th, when Mars aspects Saturn by its most malefic 8th house aspect and simultaneously aspects the 6th house cusp. Also the time around March 18-22 when Mars aspects Rahu by the same aspect while Sun conjoins the Mars-Mercury conjunction.

This event or series of March-April events will only be one step in a longer sequence of events that draws Iran into the Mid-East conflict. Another moment of violence is likely in Nov-Dec 2007.

Unless you're Sean Penn, I wouldn't be planning any trips to Teheran anytime soon.